11/09/2020

Major developments:

USD is now at 73.44. USDINR opened at 73.48. Expect 73.30-73.58 range for the day.

ECB maintained status quo, but was upbeat on recovery. GDP is expected to contract by -8% this year as against -8.7% in last update. Headline inflation is expected to steady at 0.3% this year. The reading is expected to improve to 1% (up from +0.8% in June) in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022.

ECB President noted that “the incoming data since our last monetary policy meeting in July suggest a strong rebound in activity broadly in line with previous expectations”. She added that “domestic demand has recorded a significant recovery from low levels” but warned that “elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook continues to weigh on consumer spending and business investment”. ECB Chief also added that Euro strength’s impact on inflation will be carefully assessed, without committing on the present trend and strength of EURO.

Indian IIP and CPI data are other key events.

-USDINR is at 73.47. Prior day’s close was 73.46.

-Indian Equity indices trade flat.

-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 6.06%.

-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 4.28%.

USDINR @ 73.47, EUR/USD 1.1835, GBP/USD @ 1.2824, USD/JPY @ 106.17, EUR/INR @ 86.95, GBP/INR @ 94.20,  JPY/INR @ 69.20.

Gold@1947, WTI Crude @ 37.18, Nifty @ 11454(+5), 10 Year G-SEC @ 6.06.

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