FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.23. USDINR opened at 83.18. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.71% p.a.
-US GDP, Core PCE data are key data events for the week.
-ECB meeting and rate decision is key event for the week.
-Indian Equities slump on below par corporate results and surging US Yields.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83.80 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 25-Oct-23 | 83.15 | 101.15 | 88.12 | 55.49 |
-USDINR is at 83.23.Prior day’s close was 83.16.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.36%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.71%.
USDINR @ 83.23, EUR/USD@ 1.0547, GBP/USD @ 1.2081, USD/JPY @ 150.38, EUR/INR @ 87.78, GBP/INR @ 100.54, JPY/INR @ 55.34. Gold@1988, Brent Crude @ 89.95, Nifty @ 18941(-177), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.36%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged on dipes to 83.10 . Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.50.
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