FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.18. USDINR opened at 83.15. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.70% p.a.
-US 10 Year Treasury yields climb to 4.98%.
-FED Chairman said that the committee will proceed carefully on future rate hikes, even though the option of increasing rates is not ruled out. He claimed that higher yields have done what the Fed wanted to do and that higher yields is a result of higher fiscal deficit.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80.
Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 19-Oct-23 | 83.27 | 101.05 | 87.75 | 55.6 |
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.34%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.70%.
USDINR @ 83.18, EUR/USD@ 1.0575, GBP/USD @ 1.2134, USD/JPY @ 149.87, EUR/INR @ 87.95, GBP/INR @ 100.92, JPY/INR @ 55.50. Gold@1976, Brent Crude @ 93.30, Nifty @ 19574(-50), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.34%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83.10. Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70. GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.75.
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