By Goodwill
FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.14. USDINR opened at 83.16. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.79% p.a.
-US FOMC minutes sounded cautionary on future rate hikes due to economic uncertainty and rising Crude prices.
-Indian CPI, IIP and US CPI are important data events for the day..
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 11-Oct-23 | 83.23 | 102.27 | 88.25 | 55.89 |
-USDINR is at 83.13.Prior day’s close was 83.19.
-Indian Equity indices decline marginally.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.30%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.79%.
USDINR @ 83.13, EUR/USD@ 1.0629, GBP/USD @ 1.2318, USD/JPY @ 149.16, EUR/INR @ 88.36, GBP/INR @ 102.41, JPY/INR @ 55.73. Gold@1877, Brent Crude @ 85.50, Nifty @ 19786(-25), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.30%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83. Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.75.
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