FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.21. USDINR opened at 83.20. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.85% p.a.
-RBI maintained status quo on repo rate at 6.5%. GDP and inflation outlook remains
unchanged. GDP is expected to climb by 6.5% in this fiscal and inflation is projected at 5.4%.
-Inflation is clouded by lower Kharif sowing and high Global food and energy prices.
-10 year Yield is at 7.3% and Indian Equity indices are trading higher.
-US Nonfarm payrolls is the key event for the day.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 5-Oct-23 | 83.24 | 101.06 | 87.47 | 55.95 |
-USDINR is at 83.21.Prior day’s close was 83.27.
-Indian Equity indices climb.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.30%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.85%.
USDINR @ 83.21, EUR/USD@ 1.0538, GBP/USD @ 1.2175, USD/JPY @ 148.81, EUR/INR @ 87.70, GBP/INR @ 101.31, JPY/INR @ 55.91.
Gold@1821, Brent Crude @ 84.15, Nifty @ 19648(+102), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.30%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.75.
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