FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.22. USDINR opened at 83.20. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.86% p.a.
-RBI’S policy statement is to be released on Oct 6 th. RBI is likely to keep rates unchanged.
-US Nonfarm payrolls is to be released tomorrow.
-US ISM(services) inched higher to 53.6. Factory orders climbed 1.2% m/m.
-USD retraced against majors as Yields pulled back. US 10 Year yield is now at 4.71%.
-Crude declined steeply by 5% in a single day on fears of Global economic slow down, notwithstanding supply squeeze and inventory drawdown.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 4-Oct-23 | 83.26 | 100.41 | 87.34 | 55.78 |
-USDINR is at 83.22.Prior day’s close was 83.23.
-Indian Equity indices climb marginally.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.21%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.86%.
USDINR @ 83.22, EUR/USD@ 1.0524, GBP/USD @ 1.2159, USD/JPY @ 148.46, EUR/INR @ 87.57, GBP/INR @ 101.17, JPY/INR @ 56.05. Gold@1828, Brent Crude @ 86.30, Nifty @ 19521(+85), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.21%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.75.
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