• By Goodwill
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  • October 4, 2023


Major developments:

USD is now at 83.20. USDINR opened at 83.23. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.83% p.a
-Rupee’s decline is capped even as USD is resilient against majors.
-RBI’S policy statement is to be released on Oct 6 th. RBI is likely to keep rates unchanged.
-Indian PMI(mfrg) data remained robust at 57.5 for Sept.
-US Nonfarm payrolls and ISM(services) data are key events from US.
-USD gained further against majors as US Yields surged, following better than expected mfrg data. US 10 Year yield is now at 4.84%.
-US Equity market declined on Yield rise.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
Trade Date  1 USD 1 GBP 1 EUR 100 YEN
3-Oct-23 83.18 100.4 87.07 55.5
-USDINR is at 83.24.Prior day’s close was 83.19.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.25%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.83%.
USDINR @ 83.24, EUR/USD@ 1.0469, GBP/USD @ 1.2081, USD/JPY @ 149.18, EUR/INR @ 87.16, GBP/INR @ 100.55, JPY/INR @ 55.79.
Gold@1822, Brent Crude @ 91, Nifty @ 19421(-107), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.25%.
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.40/103.75.
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