FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.11. USDINR opened at 83.11. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.80% p.a.
-US Core PCE index are important events for this week.
-US Govt is facing shutdown as there is still no agreement on funding plans.
-US Yields rally continue to support USD, though there was a mild correction in crosses.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 82.80/82.65. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 28-Sep-23 | 83.15 | 100.91 | 87.34 | 55.66 |
-USDINR is at 83.11.Prior day’s close was 83.20.
-Indian Equity indices climb.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.21%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.80%.
USDINR @ 83.11, EUR/USD@ 1.0581, GBP/USD @ 1.2225, USD/JPY @ 149.37, EUR/INR @ 87.92, GBP/INR @ 101.60, JPY/INR @ 55.64.
Gold@1865, Brent Crude @ 93.15, Nifty @ 19600(+77), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.21%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 82.90/82.65. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 88/88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 102.65/103.75.
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