FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
Major developments:
USD is now at 82.92. USDINR opened at 82.82. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.76% p.a.
-Rupee gained from 83.07 to 82.85 as JP Morgan announced Indian Bonds inclusion in
Emerging market bond index. JP Morgan EM bond capitalization is USD 236 bn.
-India is likely to get weightage of 10%, implying Indian Bond purchase of USD 24 bn.
-The process may start in June 2024 and buying will be staggered over 10 months period.
-There are other international agencies like FTSE which may also include Indian Bonds.
-BOE kept rates unchanged and indicated that it is done with rate hike cycle.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. Expect 83.30/83.60 as possible levels for USDINR this month. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 82.65.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 21-Sep-23 | 83.15 | 102.43 | 88.51 | 56.05 |
-USDINR is at 82.90.Prior day’s close was 83.07.
-Indian Equity indices decline.
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.12%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.76%.
USDINR @ 82.90, EUR/USD@ 1.0654, GBP/USD @ 1.2283, USD/JPY @ 148.03, EUR/INR @ 88.32, GBP/INR @ 101.84, JPY/INR @ 56.01.
Gold@1924, Brent Crude @ 93.85., Nifty @ 19689(-52), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.12%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 82.80/82.65. Eur receivables can be hedged on rally to 89/89.50. GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.50/104.50.
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