USDINR opened at 82.74 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.59-82.79 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.70, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.78.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.71 on 01/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 82.85, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83. Nov Euro/INR closed at 82.44, GBP/INR at 95.65 and Yen/INR at 56.51. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.40% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 528.36 bn as on Oct 14 th. FX reserves declined by USD 4.5 bn as compared to previous fortnight.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (01/11) |
| USDINR | 82.71 |
| EURINR | 82.14 |
| GBPINR | 95.43 |
| JPYINR | 55.93 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 133 points (0.74%) y’day. DOW declined 79 points (0.24%). Nikkei climbed 0.33% and Hang Seng climbed 5.23%.
Euro is now at 0.9887, Pound at 1.1475, Yen at 148.72.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1650 and WT1Crude at USD 88/Brent at USD 95.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.05% and 3 m libor closed at 4.44%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.44%.
Economic news: Core sector comprising of 8 sectors grew by 7.9% in Sept. Coal production grew by 12%, Crude production declined 2.3%, Fertilizer production climbed 11.8%, Steel production climbed 6.7%, Cement production grew by 12.1%.Power generation grew by 11%.
Focus is on RBI meeting, Fed and BOE outcomes. RBI MPC is meeting to draft a response on inflation management.
Data highlights: – – US ISM (mfrg) remained in expansion mode at 50.2 and construction spending climbed 0.2% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : US ADP employment report
-EU PMI(mfrg-final)
| USD/INR | 82.79 | 82.59 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9887 | 0.9953 | 0.9853 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1475 | 1.1566 | 1.1437 | |
| USD/JPY | 148.72 | 148.82 | 146.99 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9894 | 0.9935 | 0.9994 | 1.0035 | 0.9835 | 0.9794 | 0.9735 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1498 | 1.1559 | 1.1627 | 1.1688 | 1.1430 | 1.1369 | 1.1301 |
| USD/JPY | 147.91 | 148.83 | 149.74 | 150.66 | 147 | 146.08 | 145.17 |
| USD/INR | 82.69 | 82.79 | 82.89 | 82.59 | 82.49 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9845 | 1.01/1.02 | SIDE | DN<0.9840 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1440 | 1.1740 | UP | DN<1.1440 |
| USD/JPY | 144/140.40 | 152 | UP | SIDE<144 |
| USD/INR | 82.50/82.12 | 83.30 | UP | SIDE<82.12 |
| USD/CHF | 0.98/0.97 | 0.9945/1.0060 | SIDE | UP>0.9945 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.34. 50 day moving average is at 80.98.200 day moving average is at 77.90. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.12/81.95/81.70 and important resistance is at 83.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 82.87, S1:82.75, S2:82.66, R1:82.96, R2:83.08.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged .
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.01/1.02. Next major support is at 0.9845. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9540. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1440. Important resistance is at 1.1740.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 144/140.40. Major resistance is at 152.
