FX MORNING UPDATE                                                                                   

USDINR opened at 82.78 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.77-82.88 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.86, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.76.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.86 on 23/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 82.85, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.78. Dec Euro/INR closed at 88, GBP/INR at 100.05 and Yen/INR at 62.45. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 564 bn as on Dec 9 th.  FX reserves have risen for the 5th straight week from USD 527 bn.


In Dec, FII’S have bought Rs 2644 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 3228 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.14 lac Cr worth of Equities.

Benchmark Nifty declined 320 points (1.77%) on Friday. DOW climbed 176 points (0.53%). Nikkei declined 1.03% and Hang Seng declined 0.44% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0604, Pound at 1.2055, Yen at 132.80.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1806 and WT1Crude at USD 79.35/Brent at USD 84.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.75% and 3 m libor closed at 4.77%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.31%.

Economic news: US PCE price index rose 0.1% mom while core PCE price (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom. PCE price index slowed from 6.1% yoy to 5.5% yoy, above expectation of 5.3% yoy. Core PCE price index slowed form 5.0% yoy to 4.7% yoy, matched expectations.

FX markets continued to exhibit range trading ahead of holiday season.

Data highlights: – – US durables order declined -2.1% m/m, personal income climbed 0.4% m/m, spending climbed 0.1% m/m and Core PCE climbed 0.2% m/m as expected.

Monday’s calendar : No major data.

USD/INR   82.8882.77
EUR/USD       1.06131.06331.0586
GBP/USD       1.20551.20921.2018
USD/JPY       132.80133.16132.15

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.06101.06351.0657 1.05871.0563 
GBP/USD1.20551.2092 1.2129 1.20181.1981 
USD/JPY132.70133.25 133.71 132.24131.69 
USD/INR82.8382.9082.94 82.7882.72 


Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.31. 50 day moving average is at 82.18.200 day moving average is at 79.31. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.58/82.37 and important resistance is at 82.92. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:

PP: 82.84, S1:82.77, S2:82.71, R1:82.91, R2:82.97.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged on rally to 82.90+.


EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0735. Next major support is at 1.0440/1.0290. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0735. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2445 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.19. Important resistance is at 1.2350/1.2750.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 138. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 138/140.50/142.25.

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