FX MORNING UPDATE

11/04/2018

USDINR opened at 64.87 y’day and the pair traded in the 64.87-65.02 range. USDINR closed at 64.98, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 65.01.RBI reference rate was fixed at 64.93. April USD/INR closed at 65.09, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 65.14. Global markets rallied as Chinese President calmed trade jitters. April Euro/INR closed at 80.30, GBP/INR at 92.19 and Yen/INR at 60.86.

FII’S bought 95 Cr of Indian Equities in April . FII’S have bought Rupees 3706 Cr of Indian debt securities in April . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 14977 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have bought Rupees 1801 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.22% y’day. DOW climbed 428 points (1.58%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.54% and Hang seng climbed 1.65% Y’day.

Euro is now at 1.2359, Pound at 1.4179,Yen at 107.11.     

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1344 and WT1Crude at USD 65.33.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.80% and 3 m libor closed at 2.29%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.   

Economic news: Chinese President reiterated China’s commitment to multilateral framework like G20, and APEC. Xi also pledged on reforms, including lowering restrictions for foreign investment, strengthening adherence to international economic and trade rules, strengthen protection of intellectual property rights and expand imports and promote current account balances.

 ECB member said that it is time for gradual normalization of interest rates as inflation will eventually materialize.

Data Highlights:-  EU PPI climbed 0.3% m/m.

Wednesday’s calendar: – US CPI and FOMC minutes


USD/INR   65.02 64.87
EUR/USD 1.2359 1.2378 1.2303
GBP/USD 1.4179 1.4188 1.4120
USD/JPY 107.11 107.16 106.97

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.2348 1.2393 1.2423 1.2468 1.2318 1.2273 1.2243
GBP/USD 1.4163 1.4206 1.4231 1.4274 1.4138 1.4095 1.4070
USD/JPY 107.05

 

107.48 107.83 108.26

 

106.70 106.27 105.92
USD/INR 64.96 65.04 65.11   64.90 64.81  

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.2150/1.2090 1.2475/1.2555 SIDE SIDE<1.2150
GBP/USD 1.3710 1.4245/1.4345 UP DN<1.3710
USD/JPY 104.50 108 DN SIDE>108
USD/INR 64.62/64.40 65.30 UP SIDE<64.80
USD/CHF 0.9470 0.9870 SIDE  DN <0.9430

Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 65.02. 50 day moving average is at 64.62. 200 day moving average is at 64.47. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying top at 65.30 . Important support zone is at 64.62/64.40. Important resistance is  at 65.30/65.50. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 65.06,S1:64.98, S2:64.88, R1:65.16, R2:65.24

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

 CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 20 and 50 day moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.2475 and later at 1.2555. Major support is at 1.2150. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.2475. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bullish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4250 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4345. The pair is trading above 200 day major moving average. Important resistance is at 1.4245/1.4345. Important support is at 1.3710.   

USD/YEN: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 104.56. Important support is at 104.56. Important resistance is  at 108 and later at 110.40. 

                              

 

  Research Team

 

 Goodwill

 

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