USDINR opened at 81.67 on Friday and the pair traded in the 81.44-81.71 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.67, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.63.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.53 on 25/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 81.67, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.69. Nov Euro/INR closed at 84.95, GBP/INR at 98.84 and Yen/INR at 58.58. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.12% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 544 bn as on Nov 11th. FX reserves rose by USD 14 bn as compared to previous week..
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (25/11)|
In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 24714 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 269 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.12 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 28 points (0.15%) on Friday. DOW climbed 153 points on Friday (0.45%). Nikkei declined 0.35% and Hang Seng declined 0.49% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0372, Pound at 1.2058, Yen at 139.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1750 and WT1Crude at USD 76/Brent at USD 83.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.69% and 3 m libor closed at 4.67%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.
Economic news: US Personal spending, ISM (mfrg) and Non farm payrolls data are key data releases for this week. EU CPI data is also another important data release. US Fed Chairman wiil be speaking on the economy this week. Crude Oil declined steeply on increasing Chinese Covid related lock downs.
Market sentiment in the US was generally positive last week. Minutes of November FOMC meeting noted that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate”. The message reinforced the expectations that the next move on December 15 is a 50bps hike, with market now pricing in over 75% chance (around 25% chance for another 75bps hike).
Data highlights: – No major release.
Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.88. 50 day moving average is at 81.67.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.50 and important resistance is at 81.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 81.61, S1:81.49, S2:81.32, R1:81.78, R2:81.90.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Exports be hedged at 82+ levels. Imports be hedged at 80.75.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0470. Next major support is at 1.0225/1.01. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1780/1.1650. Important resistance is at 1.20/1.22.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 137.70/134. Major resistance is at 142.25/145.
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