USDINR opened at 81.56 on Friday and the pair traded in the 81.52-81.79 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.68, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.65. Rupee is declining as USD INDEX fall has stabilized after its recent downtrend. Rupee has declined 1% w/w.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.70 on 18/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 81.74, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.71. Nov Euro/INR closed at 84.75, GBP/INR at 97.35 and Yen/INR at 58.46. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.15% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 544 bn as on Nov 11th.  FX reserves rose by USD 14 bn as compared to previous week..

In Nov, FII’S have bought Rs 23468 Cr of Equities till date and have bought Rs 1605 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.14 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 36 points (0.20%) on Friday. DOW climbed 199 points on Friday (0.59%). Nikkei declined 0.11% and Hang Seng declined 0.29% on Friday.

Euro closed the week at 1.0324, Pound at 1.1889, Yen at 140.37.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1752 and WT1Crude at USD 80/Brent at USD 87.75.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.83% and 3 m libor closed at 4.67%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.

Economic news: ECB Chief said that “We have acted decisively, raising rates by 200 basis points, and we expect to raise rates further to the levels needed to ensure that inflation returns to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner,” .

Fed members continued to maintain hawkish stance. Boston Fed President said that “restoring price stability remains the current imperative and it is clear that there is more work to do.”“I expect this will require additional increases in the federal funds rate, followed by a period of holding rates at a sufficiently restrictive level for some time,” she said.“The latest data have not reduced my sense of what sufficiently restrictive may mean, nor my resolve,” she added.

Data highlights: – US existing home sales climbed to 4.43 mn.

-UK retail sales climbed 0.6% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50, 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.12. 50 day moving average is at 81.48.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.50 and important resistance is at 81.90. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 81.66, S1:81.53, S2:81.39, R1:81.80, R2:81.93.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

Exports be hedged at 82+ levels. Imports be hedged at 80.75.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0470. Next major support is at 1.02/1.01. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1650. Important resistance is at 1.20/1.22.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 135.50. Major resistance is at 140.40/145.

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