USDINR opened at 81.11 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.04-81.44 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.10, loss of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.26.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.43 on 15/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 81.04, loss of 31 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.35. Nov Euro/INR closed at 84.51, GBP/INR at 96.15 and Yen/INR at 58.27. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.27% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 529.9 bn as on Nov 4th. FX reserves declined by USD 1.09 bn as compared to previous fortnight.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (15/11)|
In Nov, FII’S bought Rs 12062 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 756 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.25 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 74 points (0.41%) y’day. DOW climbed 56 points (0.17%). Nikkei is climbed 0.10% and Hang Seng climbed 4.11% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0342, Pound at 1.1846, Yen at 139.43.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1779 and WT1Crude at USD 87/Brent at USD 94.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.78% and 3 m libor closed at 4.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.26%.
Economic news: Indian exports declined 16.65% in Oct to USD 29.78 bn. Imports climbed 5.7% to USD 56.7 bn. Trade deficit was at 26.92 bn in Oct. This is the first month of export contraction since Feb 2021.Commerce Secretary said the October trade data was impacted by the Diwali and Dussehra festive season as factory workers tend to go on leave. WTO has reduced global trade growth forecasts and the IMF has downgraded GDP growth projections
Japanese GDP contracted -0.3% qoq in Q3, much worse than expectation of 0.3% qoq. In annualized term, GDP contracted -1.2%, versus expectation of 1.1%. GDP deflator dropped -0.5% yoy, versus expectation of -0.2% yoy.
Data highlights: – US PPI climbed 0.2% m/m.
-EU and German Zew survey are reported at -38.7 and -36.7 respectively.
-UK unemployment rate was reported at 3.6% and claimant count change is at 3.3k.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US retail sales, Industrial production
-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.25. 50 day moving average is at 81.28.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.50 and important resistance is at 81.28/81.45/81.65. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 81.19, S1:80.82, S2:80.30, R1:81.62, R2:81.90.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
Exports be hedged at 82+ levels. Imports be hedged at 80.75.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0470. Next major support is at 1.02/1.01. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.
GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1650. Important resistance is at 1.20.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 135.50. Major resistance is at 140.40.
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