USDINR opened at 80.68 on Friday and the pair traded in the 80.58-80.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 80.81, loss of One Rupee for USD as against prior close of 81.81.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 80.64 on  11/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 80.89, loss of 94 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.83. Nov Euro/INR closed at 83.11, GBP/INR at 94.90 and Yen/INR at 57.89. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 529.9 bn as on Nov 4th.  FX reserves declined by USD 1.09 bn as compared to previous fortnight.

In Nov, FII’S bought Rs 12062 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 756 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.25 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 321 points (1.78%) y’day. DOW climbed 32 points (0.10%). Nikkei climbed 2.98% and Hang Seng climbed 7.74% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0354, Pound at 1.1837, Yen at 138.80.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1774 and WT1Crude at USD 88.90/Brent at USD 95.78.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.81% and 3 m libor closed at 4.60%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.

Economic news: IIP climbed 3.1% in Sept. Manufacturing climbed 1.8% in Sept. Power generation climbed 11.6% and Mining grew by 4.6%.

Lower than expected US CPI triggered a surge in stocks and decline in USD. USD index fell as most crosses rallied steeply. This development helped Rupee to strengthen by one Rupee on Friday.

Data highlights: – -UK Industrial production climbed 0.2% m/m and manufacturing production was flat m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – EU industrial production.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.35. 50 day moving average is at 81.28.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.30 and important resistance is at 81.25/81.65. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 81.09, S1:80.45, S2:80.02, R1:81.52, R2:82.16.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0430. Next major support is at 1.02/1.01. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1150 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1150. Important resistance is at 1.19.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 135.50. Major resistance is at 140.40.

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