USDINR opened at 81.63 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.54-81.93 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.81, gain of 38 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.43.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.74 on  10/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 81.83, gain of 24 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.59. Nov Euro/INR closed at 81.57, GBP/INR at 93.25 and Yen/INR at 56.02. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.35% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 531 bn as on Oct 28 th.  FX reserves jumped by USD 6.5 bn as compared to previous fortnight.

In Nov, FII’S bought Rs 8363 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 382 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.29 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 128 points (0.71%) y’day. DOW climbed 1201 points (3.70%). Nikkei declined 0.98% and Hang Seng declined 1.70% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0194, Pound at 1.1703, Yen at 141.40.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1755 and WT1Crude at USD 86.45/Brent at USD 93.35.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.81% and 3 m libor closed at 4.55%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.38%.

Economic news: US CPI rose 0.4% mom in October, below expectation of 0.7% mom. Core CPI rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Energy rose 1.8% mom while food rose 0.6% mom. Over the last 12 months, CPI slowed from 8.2% yoy to 7.7% yoy, below expectation of 8.0% yoy. That’s the lowest rate since January this year. Core CPI slowed from 6.6% yoy to 6.3% yoy, below expectation of 6.5% yoy

Global stocks climbed and USD declined against majors. Equities sled by tech surged after data showing slowing inflation stoked hopes for less hawkish Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing Treasury yields lower.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 225k.

Friday’s calendar : – Indian IIP, CPI

-UK Industrial and manufacturing production.

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.44. 50 day moving average is at 81.26.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 80.75 and important resistance is at 81.25/81.65. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 81.81, S1:81.58, S2:81.34, R1:82.05, R2:82.28.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.02/1.0340. Next major support is at 1.01/1.00. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1150. Important resistance is at 1.1650.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 140.40. Major resistance is at 145.

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