12/09/2018
USDINR opened gap up at 72.30 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.25-72.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.68, gain of 23 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 72.45.RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.57. Rupee has declined 14% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Sep USD/INR closed at 72.83, gain of 25 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.58. Sep Euro/INR closed at 84.45, GBP/INR at 94.89 and Yen/INR at 65.40.
FII’S have bought Rs 2739 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 05/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 3552 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 05/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2740 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 42325 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 1.32% y’day. DOW climbed 113 points (0.44%) Y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.30% and Hang seng declined 0.72% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1595, Pound at 1.3017,Yen at 111.56.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1202 and WT1Crude at USD 69.83.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.98% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.16%.
Economic news: Stocks slumped and Rupee weakened further on reports that China is planning to move WTO to impose sanctions on US. This is in retaliation to US move to impose new tariffs on almost the entire Chinese imports. Focus is on Indian IIP and CPI data.
Data Highlights: – EU Zew survey improved to -7.9 and German Zew survey declined to -10.6.
-UK unemployment rate was reported at 4% and claimant count change expanded to 8.7k.
Wednesday’s calendar: -US PPI and beige book.
| USD/INR | 72.73 | 72.25 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1595 | 1.1643 | 1.1566 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3017 | 1.3085 | 1.2969 |
| USD/JPY | 111.56 | 111.65 | 111.15 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1602 | 1.1638 | 1.1679 | 1.1715 | 1.1561 | 1.1525 | 1.1484 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3023 | 1.3077 | 1.3139 | 1.3193 | 1.2961 | 1.2907 | 1.2845 |
| USD/JPY | 111.48
|
111.81 | 111.98 | 112.31
|
111.31 | 110.98 | 110.81
|
| USD/INR | 72.55 | 72.85 | 73.03 | 72.37 | 72.07 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1735/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2785/1.2660 | 1.3050/1.3250 | SIDE | DN<1.2785 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 111.85/113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 71.20/70.30 | 72.60 | UP | SIDE<70.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9440 | 0.9850 | DN | UP >0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 70.72. 50 day moving average is at 69.50. 200 day moving average is at 66.22. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.20 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 72.70,S1:72.52, S2:72.21, R1:73.01, R2:73.19.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1735 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1735. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3050 and later at 1.3250. Important support is at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.85. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 111.85/ 113.
