USDINR opened lower at 82.10 on Monday and the pair traded in the 81.92-82.32 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.92, loss of 52 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.44. FX market was closed y’day for Guru Nanak Jayanti.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.21 on  07/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 82.06, loss of 32 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.38. Nov Euro/INR closed at 82.05, GBP/INR at 94.14 and Yen/INR at 56.14. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.25% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 531 bn as on Oct 28 th.  FX reserves jumped by USD 6.5 bn as compared to previous fortnight.

In Nov, FII’S bought Rs 8363 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 382 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.29 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 85 points (0.47%) on Monday. DOW climbed 333 points (1.02%). Nikkei and Hang Seng are marginally down today.

Euro is now at 1.0069, Pound at 1.1539, Yen at 145.47.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1710 and WT1Crude at USD 88.50/Brent at USD 95.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.16% and 3 m libor closed at 4.55%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.

Economic news: Euro climbed as ECB Chief said that “we will continue raising rates to a level that ensures inflation will come back into line with our definition of price stability”. The level will depend on ”data that we receive, the evolution of inflation, economic conditions, demand, and energy prices.” On the topic of quantitative tightening, he said ECB will start it “sooner or later, for sure in 2023”. It must be implemented with “a lot prudence”. 

USD has been under downward pressure from bets on the Federal Reserve easing back on interest rate rises and on China reopening and driving growth. However, US CPI data holds key for near term direction.

Data highlights: – German Industrial production climbed 0.6% m/m and EU sentix survey was reported at -30.9 .

-EU retail sales climbed 0.4% m/m.

Wednesday’s calendar : – No major data release.

 Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.51. 50 day moving average is at 81.20.200 day moving average is at 78.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 81.75 and important resistance is at 82.35/82.65. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 82.15, S1:81.86, S2:81.66, R1:82.35, R2:82.64.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports be hedged .

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.01/1.02. Next major support is at 0.9730. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9535. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 0.9535.

GBP/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1150. Important resistance is at 1.1650.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 144/140.40. Major resistance is at 152.

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