USDINR opened at 82.38 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.32-82.78 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.78, gain of 32 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.46. Rupee declined 1.75% in Oct to close at 82.78 as against 81.35 on Sept 30 th.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.39 on 31/10. Nov USD/INR closed at 83, gain of 35 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.65. Nov Euro/INR closed at 82.58, GBP/INR at 95.87 and Yen/INR at 56.07. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.40% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 528.36 bn as on Oct 14 th. FX reserves declined by USD 4.5 bn as compared to previous fortnight.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (31/10)|
In Oct, FII’S have sold Rs 4470 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 581 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.50 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 225 points (1.27%) y’day. DOW declined 128 points (0.39%). Nikkei climbed 1.78% and Hang Seng declined 1.18%.
Euro is now at 0.9887, Pound at 1.1475, Yen at 148.72.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1635 and WT1Crude at USD 86/Brent at USD 92.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.05% and 3 m libor closed at 4.44%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.44%.
Economic news: Eurozone GDP grew 0.2% qoq in Q3, slightly above expectation of 0.1% qoq, but much slower than Q2’s 0.8% qoq. Eurozone CPI accelerated from 9.9% yoy to 10.7% yoy in October, above expectation of 9.9% yoy. CPI core (all-items ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco also rose from 4.8% yoy to 5.0% yoy, above expectation of 4.8% yoy.
Focus is on RBI meeting, Fed and BOE outcomes. RBI MPC is meeting to draft a response on inflation management.
Data highlights: – EU CPI climbed 10.7% y/y, Core CPI climbed 5% y/y German retail sales climbed 0.9% m/m.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US ISM (mfrg) and construction spending
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.30. 50 day moving average is at 80.85.200 day moving average is at 77.90. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.12/81.95/81.70 and important resistance is at 83.30. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 82.85, S1:82.65, S2:82.30, R1:83.20, R2:83.40.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged .
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50 and 20 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.01/1.02. Next major support is at 0.9845. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9540. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 20 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380. Important support is at 1.1440. Important resistance is at 1.1740.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important support is at 144/140.40. Major resistance is at 152.
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