USDINR opened at 82.90 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.59-82.91 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.67, loss of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.75.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.86 21/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 82.81, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.78. Oct Euro/INR closed at 81.45, GBP/INR at 93.41 and Yen/INR at 55.57. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.50% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 528.36 bn as on Oct 14 th. FX reserves declined by USD 4.5 bn as compared to previous fortnight.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (21/10) |
| USDINR | 82.86 |
| EURINR | 80.92 |
| GBPINR | 92.66 |
| JPYINR | 55.09 |
In Oct, FII’S have sold Rs 4470 Cr of Equities and have bought Rs 581 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.50 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 154 points (0.88%) on Friday. DOW climbed 417 points (1.34%). Nikkei climbed 0.31% and Hang Seng declined 6.36%.
Euro is now at 0.9769, Pound at 1.1205, Yen at 150.20.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1630 and WT1Crude at USD 84.50/Brent at USD 92.30.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.35% and 3 m libor closed at 4.24%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.47%.
Economic news: US, EU and UK PMI surveys showed steep decline. Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “October’s flash PMI data showed the pace of economic decline gathering momentum after the recent political and financial market upheavals… GDP therefore looks certain to fall in the fourth quarter after a likely third quarter contraction, meaning the UK is in recession.
Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “The eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter given the steepening loss of output and deteriorating demand picture seen in October, adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.
“While October’s headline flash PMI is consistent with GDP falling at a modest rate of around 0.2%, demand is falling sharply and companies are increasingly growing worried over high inventories and weaker than expected sales, especially as winter approaches. The risks are therefore tilted towards the downturn accelerating towards the year-end.”
Data highlights: -US PMI(mfrg) contracted to 46.6 and PMI(services) remained in contraction mode at 49.9.
– EU PMI(mfrg) declined to 46.6.PMI(services) remained in contraction mode at 48.2.
-UK PMI(mfrg) declined steeply to 45.8. PMI(services) dipped to 47.5.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US Consumer confidence, House price index
-German Ifo survey
| USD/INR | 82.91 | 82.59 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9882 | 0.9900 | 0.9807 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1304 | 1.1410 | 1.1257 | |
| USD/JPY | 148.95 | 149.70 | 145.62 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9860 | 0.9913 | 0.9954 | 1.0007 | 0.9820 | 0.9766 | 0.9726 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1314 | 1.1371 | 1.1467 | 1.1524 | 1.1218 | 1.1161 | 1.1065 |
| USD/JPY | 148.10 | 150.57 | 152.17 | 154.65 | 146.50 | 144.03 | 142.43 |
| USD/INR | 82.72 | 82.85 | 83.04 | 82.53 | 82.40 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9540 | 1.00 | DN | SIDE>1.00 |
| GBP/USD | 1.04 | 1.1490/1.18 | DN | SIDE>1.1490 |
| USD/JPY | 145.90/140.40 | 145.90/151 | UP | SIDE<145.90 |
| USD/INR | 82.40 | 83.30 | UP | SIDE<82.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9860/0.9740 | 1.0060/1.0225 | UP | SIDE<0.9740 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.08. 50 day moving average is at 80.67.200 day moving average is at 77.74. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.40 and important resistance is at 83.30. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 82.84, S1:82.75, S2:82.70, R1:82.89, R2:82.98.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged at 82.40.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.00. Next major support is at 0.9540. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.02. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.0380. Important resistance is at 1.1490/1.18.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 140.40. Important support is at 145.90/140.40. Major resistance is at 151.
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