FX MORNING UPDATE             


USDINR opened gap up at 72.17 y’day and the pair traded in the 72.07-72.67 range. Spot USDINR closed at 72.45, gain of 72 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 71.73.RBI reference rate was fixed at 72.57. Rupee declined close to one Rupee y’day. RBI sold USD at 72.15 and later at 72.65. Heavy off shore buying in USD and Oil purchase demand weighed on Rupee. Rupee has declined 14% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Sep USD/INR closed at 72.58, gain of 68 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.90. Sep Euro/INR closed at 84.09, GBP/INR at 93.86 and Yen/INR at 65.34.

FII’S have bought Rs 2739 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 05/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 3552 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 05/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2740 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold  Rupees 42325 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.

Benchmark Nifty declined 1.3% y’day. DOW declined 79 points (0.31%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.30% and Hang seng declined 1.33% y’day.

Euro closed the week at 1.1591, Pound at 1.3033,Yen at 111.37.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1199 and WT1Crude at USD 67.58.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.94% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.16%.        

Economic news: Rupee’s decline was unabated as Global trade war is set to intensify with US President considering slapping tariff on additional USD 275 bn worth of Chinese imports. Indian Equity indices fell sharply.

Data Highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence dipped to 12.

-UK industrial climbed 0.1% m/m and manufacturing production declined -0.2% m/m.



Tuesday’s calendar: – EU and German Zew surveys

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change

USD/INR   72.67 72.07
EUR/USD 1.1591 1.1616 1.1528
GBP/USD 1.3033 1.3052 1.2897
USD/JPY 111.37 111.25 110.86

Daily Support/Resistance table

CurrencyPairs Pivot R1 R2 R3 S1 S2 S3
EURO/USD 1.1579 1.1630 1.1667 1.1718 1.1542 1.1491 1.1454
GBP/USD 1.2992 1.3087 1.3147 1.3242 1.2932 1.2837 1.2777
USD/JPY 111.08


111.30 111.47 111.69


110.91 110.69 110.52


USD/INR 72.40 72.72 72.98   72.14 71.82  


Curency Pair Supports Resistances Trend Remarks
EURO/USD 1.1525/1.13 1.1735/1.1960 SIDE DN<1.1525
GBP/USD 1.2785/1.2660 1.3050/1.3250 SIDE DN<1.2785
USD/JPY 109.70 111.85/113.10 UP DN<109.70
USD/INR 71.20/70.30 72.60 UP SIDE<70.30
USD/CHF 0.9440 0.9850 DN  UP >0.9850



Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving         is at 70.52. 50 day moving average is at 69.35. 200 day moving average is at 66.22. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.20 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.70. Spot closed above its average level of the day.  

Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 72.51,S1:72.19, S2:71.79, R1:72.91, R2:73.23.                                                              

Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.


EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1735 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1735. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.

GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD  is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is  in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3050 and later at 1.3250. Important support is at 1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.85. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 111.85/ 113.    


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