USDINR opened at 82.28 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.25-82.41 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.35, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.28. Rupee is consolidating below 82.67 and could trade between 81.95 and 82.70.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.40 on 13/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 82.42, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.43. Oct Euro/INR closed at 80.28, GBP/INR at 92.21 and Yen/INR at 56.28. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.75% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 532 bn as on Sep 30 th. FX reserves further declined by USD 4.4 bn, compared to prior week.

In Oct, FII’S have bought Rs 3213 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 389 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.46 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 109 points (-0.64%) y’day. DOW climbed 827 points (2.83%). Nikkei declined -0.60% and Hang Seng declined -1.87%.

Euro is now at 0.9801, Pound at 1.1350, Yen at 147.21.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1672 and WT1Crude at USD 89/Brent at USD 94.70.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.92% and 3 m libor closed at 3.90%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.42%.

Economic news: US headline CPI printed at 0.4% month-over-month and 8.2% year-over-year while the “Core” CPI reading came in at 0.6% m/m and 6.6% y/y. Both readings were above economists’ expectations, implying that inflation is getting entrenched. Markets are fully pricing 75 bps rate hike in Nov 2 nd meeting. The monetary policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield has spiked nearly 20bps to test 4.50%, its highest level in 15 years. US indices recovered 2.5% after gap down.

Sterling is recovering on reports that UK PM is likely to retreat further on the mini budget.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 228k.

Friday’s calendar : – US retail sales

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 81.29. 50 day moving average is at 80.86.200 day moving average is at 77.40. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 81.94 and important resistance is at 82.70/83.35. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP: 82.43, S1:82.33, S2:82.25, R1:82.51, R2:82.61.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports be hedged at 81.90.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.00. Next major support is at 0.9540. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9540. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.0380. Important resistance is at 1.1490.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 145.90. Important support is at 140.50/137.50. Major resistance is at 145.90.

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