USDINR opened gap up 82.67 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.30-82.69 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.32, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.33. Rupee retraced from 82.67 as RBI sold USD to stem steep fall. Fwd premia climbed 25 bps across various tenors.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.40 on 10/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 82.58, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.41. Oct Euro/INR closed at 80.25, GBP/INR at 91.38 and Yen/INR at 56.91. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.02% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 532 bn as on Sep 30 th. FX reserves further declined by USD 4.4 bn, compared to prior week.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (10/10) |
| USDINR | 82.40 |
| EURINR | 80.15 |
| GBPINR | 91.32 |
| JPYINR | 56.70 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 74 points (-0.43%) y’day. DOW declined 94 points (-0.32%). Nikkei declined -0.71% and Hang Seng declined -2.95%.
Euro is now at 0.9714, Pound at 1.1084, Yen at 145.74.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1678 and WT1Crude at USD 90.70/Brent at USD 98.45.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.95% and 3 m libor closed at 3.90%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.50%.
Economic news: EUR/USD weakness has resumed and may target 0.9535 back. Focus is on US and Indian Inflation data.
Data highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence survey declined to -38.3.
Tuesday’s calendar : – UK unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 82.69 | 82.30 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9716 | 0.9818 | 0.9725 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1084 | 1.1227 | 1.1055 | |
| USD/JPY | 145.74 | 145.46 | 144.71 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9715 | 0.9748 | 0.9785 | 0.9818 | 0.9678 | 0.9645 | 0.9608 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1070 | 1.1119 | 1.1160 | 1.1209 | 1.1029 | 1.0980 | 1.0939 |
| USD/JPY | 145.59 | 145.94 | 146.18 | 146.53 | 145.34 | 145 | 144.75 |
| USD/INR | 82.43 | 82.57 | 82.83 | 82.17 | 82.03 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9540 | 1.00 | DN | SIDE>1.00 |
| GBP/USD | 1.04 | 1.1490 | DN | SIDE>1.1490 |
| USD/JPY | 140.40 | 145.90 | UP | SIDE<140.40 |
| USD/INR | 81.95 | 83.35 | UP | SIDE<81.90 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9740/0.9475 | 1.0060 | SIDE | DN<0.9475 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 80.85. 50 day moving average is at 80.11.200 day moving average is at 77.40. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 81.94 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 82.61, S1:82.37, S2:82.17, R1:82.81, R2:83.05.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged at 81.90.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.00. Next major support is at 0.9540. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9540. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0380 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.0380. Important resistance is at 1.1490.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 145.90. Important support is at 140.50/137.50. Major resistance is at 145.90.
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