USDINR opened at 81.54 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.49-81.90 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.89, gain of 37 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.52.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.70 on 04/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 82.39, gain of 57 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 81.82. Oct Euro/INR closed at 81.45, GBP/INR at 92.75 and Yen/INR at 57.08. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.78% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 537 bn as on Sep 23 rd. FX reserves further declined by USD 8 bn, compared to prior week.

In Sep  FII’S sold Rs 3750 Cr of Equities in Cash segment and have bought Rs 4809 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.49 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 45 points (0.26%) y’day. DOW declined 346 points (-1.15%). Nikkei climbed 0.70% and Hang Seng declined 0.42%.

Euro is now at 0.9793, Pound at 1.1150, Yen at 144.94.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1719 and WT1Crude at USD 88.60/Brent at USD 94.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.82% and 3 m libor closed at 3.62%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.45%.

Economic news: World bank downgraded Indian growth to 6.5%, citing economic developments in major economies and tightening of monetary policy.

The accounts of ECB’s September 7-8 monetary policy meeting showed that a “very large number” of committee members expressed a preference for a 75bps hike, which was “a proportionate response” to upward revisions to inflation outlook and an important signal of the determination to bring inflation back to target in a “timely manner”.

US employment data is the key event for the day.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims rose 29k to 219k.

-EU retail sales declined -0.3% m/m, German factory orders declined -2.4% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 52.3.

Thursday’s calendar : –

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 80.58. 50 day moving average is at 80.01.200 day moving average is at 77.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 81.24/80.86 and important resistance is at 81.95/82.15. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP: 82.16, S1:81.88, S2:81.57, R1:82.67, R2:82.75.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports be hedged at 81.65.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 0.9860/1.02. Next major support is at 0.9560. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.02. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1740 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.04. Important resistance is at 1.13/1.14.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 145. Important support is at 140.50/137.50. Major resistance is at 145.

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