USDINR opened at 81.59 y’day and the pair traded in the 81.58-81.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 81.85, loss of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 81.94.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 81.86 on 29/09. Oct USD/INR closed at 82.01, loss of 23 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.24. Oct Euro/INR closed at 79.95, GBP/INR at 89.11 and Yen/INR at 56.85. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.75% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 545 bn as on Sep 16 th. FX reserves further declined by USD 5 bn, compared to prior week.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (28/09) |
| USDINR | 81.86 |
| EURINR | 79.09 |
| GBPINR | 88.21 |
| JPYINR | 56.59 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 40 points (-0.24%). DOW declined 458 points (-1.54%). Nikkei climbed 0.95% and Hang Seng declined 0.49%.
Euro is now at 0.9823, Pound at 1.1166, Yen at 144.63.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1671 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 87.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.79% and 3 m libor closed at 3.62%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.30%.
Economic news: RBI is likely to hike rates between 35 and 50 bps. Monetary stance continues to be accommodative as Repo rate is still far below the average inflation rate of last 9 months.
Pound is extending its recovery.
Data highlights: – US GDP(Final) declined -0.6% q/q and weekly jobless claims declined to 193k.
Friday’s calendar : US Personal income, spending, Core PCE index
-EU CPI and unemployment rate
| USD/INR | 81.94 | 81.58 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9688 | 0.9844 | 0.9636 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.0808 | 1.1202 | 1.0763 | |
| USD/JPY | 144.26 | 144.79 | 144.21 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9770 | 0.9904 | 0.9978 | 1.0012 | 0.9696 | 0.9562 | 0.9488 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1046 | 1.1329 | 1.1485 | 1.1768 | 1.0890 | 1.0607 | 1.0450 |
| USD/JPY | 144.48 | 144.75 | 145.07 | 145.34 | 144.17 | 143.89 | 143.58 |
| USD/INR | 81.79 | 82 | 82.15 | 81.64 | 81.43 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9560 | 0.9865/1.0198 | DN | SIDE>1.02 |
| GBP/USD | 1.04 | 1.14 | DN | SIDE>1.14 |
| USD/JPY | 140.40 | 145 | UP | SIDE<140.40 |
| USD/INR | 81.65/81.24 | 82.17/82.40 | UP | DN<80.10 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9475 | 0.9875 | SIDE | DN<0.9475 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 80.22. 50 day moving average is at 79.87.200 day moving average is at 77.10. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 81.55/81.24 and important resistance is at 82.17/82.40. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:
PP: 81.98, S1:81,75, S2:81.50, R1:82.23, R2:82.46.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged at 81.24/80.80.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 0.9860/1.02. Next major support is at 0.9560. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.02. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1740 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.04. Important resistance is at 1.14.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 145. Important support is at 140.50/137.50. Major resistance is at 145.
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