10/09/2018
FX MORNING UPDATE
USDINR opened at 71.95 on Friday and the pair traded in the 71.65-72.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.73, loss of 26 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 71.99.RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.91. Rupee has declined 14% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Sep USD/INR closed at 71.90, loss of 25 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 72.15. Sep Euro/INR closed at 83.54, GBP/INR at 93.47 and Yen/INR at 64.87.
FII’S have bought Rs 2739 Cr of Indian Equities in Sept till 05/9 . FII’S have sold Rs 3552 Cr of Indian debt securities in Sept till 05/9 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2740 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 42325 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 0.45% on Friday. DOW declined 79 points (0.31%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.80% and Hang seng closed flat on Friday.
Euro closed the week at 1.1553, Pound at 1.2916,Yen at 111.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1202 and WT1Crude at USD 67.80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.94% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.03%.
Economic news: US employment report showed 201k growth in August, compared to expectation of 194k. Prior month’s figure was revised down from 157k to 147k though. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%. The bigger surprise, and Dollar driving one, is average hourly earnings which showed 0.4% mom growth, above expectation of 0.3% mom.
Data Highlights: -EU GDP climbed 0.4% q/q and German industrial production declined -1.1% m/m.
Monday’s calendar: -EU sentix investor confidence
-UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing production.
| USD/INR | 72.03 | 71.65 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1553 | 1.1650 | 1.1551 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2916 | 1.3028 | 1.2909 |
| USD/JPY | 111.03 | 111.25 | 110.38 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1584 | 1.1618 | 1.1684 | 1.1518 | 1.1484 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.2951 | 1.2993 | 1.2970 | 1.2874 | 1.2932 | ||
| USD/JPY | 110.88
|
111.39 | 111.75 |
|
110.51 | 110.01 |
|
| USD/INR | 71.80 | 71.95 | 72.18 | 71.57 | 71.42 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1525/1.13 | 1.1735/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.1525 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2785/1.2660 | 1.3050/1.3250 | SIDE | DN<1.2785 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 111.85/113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 71.20/70.30 | 72.60 | UP | SIDE<70.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9440 | 0.9850 | DN | UP >0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 70.33. 50 day moving average is at 69.38. 200 day moving average is at 66.22. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 71.20 and later at 70.30. Important resistance is at 72.60. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 71.96,S1:71.73, S2:71.56, R1:72.13, R2:72.36.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1735 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1735. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3050 and later at 1.3250. Important support is at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 111.85. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is at 111.85/ 113.
