USDINR opened at 79.68 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.58-79.77 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.75, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.73.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.68 on 20/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 79.78, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.83. Sep Euro/INR closed at 79.88, GBP/INR at 91.39 and Yen/INR at 55.69. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.80% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 553 bn as on Sep 9 th. FX reserves declined by USD 11 bn as compared to Aug 26 th data.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (20/09) |
| USDINR | 79.68 |
| EURINR | 79.94 |
| GBPINR | 91.16 |
| JPYINR | 55.58 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 194 points (1.1%). DOW declined 313 points (-1.01%). Nikkei climbed 0.44% and Hang Seng climbed 1.16%.
Euro is now at 1.0035, Pound at 1.1433, Yen at 143.09.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1672 and WT1Crude at USD 83.56/Brent at USD 90.20.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.55% and 3 m libor closed at 3.48%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.24%.
Economic news: Indian Equity markets climbed, despite decline in Asian and European Equities. Rupee continued to trade steady around 79.70, awaiting Fed decision. If Rupee declines post Fed meeting, RBI may intervene again. US stocks declined as US 10 Year yield climbed to 3.55%.
US Fed and BOE meetings are key events for the week.
Data highlights: – US Building permits declined to 1.52 mn and housing starts climbed to 1.58 mn.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US existing home sales.
| USD/INR | 79.77 | 79.58 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9962 | 1.0051 | 0.9956 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1371 | 1.1461 | 1.1358 | |
| USD/JPY | 143.77 | 143.93 | 142.96 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9993 | 1.0030 | 1.0088 | 1.0125 | 0.9935 | 0.9898 | 0.9840 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1442 | 1.1503 | 1.1546 | 1.1339 | 1.1297 | 1.1235 |
| USD/JPY | 143.49 | 144.02 | 144.46 | 144.99 | 143.05 | 142.52 | 142.08 |
| USD/INR | 79.70 | 79.82 | 79.89 | 79.63 | 79.51 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9865 | 1.0200 | DN | SIDE>1.02 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1405/1.1270/1.1195 | 1.1740/1.19 | DN | SIDE>1.1740 |
| USD/JPY | 141.50/137.50 | 145 | UP | SIDE<141.50 |
| USD/INR | 79.58/79.46/79.30 | 79.85/79.94 | UP | DN<79.05 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9475 | 0.9875 | SIDE | DN<0.9475 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.70. 50 day moving average is at 79.62.200 day moving average is at 76.98. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.58/79.46 and important resistance is at 79.85/79.94. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 79.77, S1:79.64, S2:79.50, R1:79.91, R2:80.04.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged at 79.30 and exports be hedged at 79.80/80+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.02/1.0360. Next major support is at 0.9865. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9865. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1740 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1405/1.1270. Important resistance is at 1.1740/1.19.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 145. Important support is at 141.50/137.50. Major resistance is at 145.
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