USDINR opened at 79.67 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.58-79.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.73, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.75.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.67 on 19/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 79.83, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.81. Sep Euro/INR closed at 79.77, GBP/INR at 90.89 and Yen/INR at 55.72. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.80% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 553 bn as on Sep 9 th. FX reserves declined by USD 11 bn as compared to Aug 26 th data.

In Sep till date FII’S have net bought Rs 7824 Cr of Equities in Cash segment and have bought Rs 1786 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.44 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 91 points (0.52%). DOW climbed 197 points (0.46%). Nikkei declined -1.11% and Hang Seng declined -1.04%.

Euro closed the week at 1.0035, Pound at 1.1433, Yen at 143.09.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1684 and WT1Crude at USD 85/Brent at USD 91.75.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.48% and 3 m libor closed at 3.48%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.24%.

Economic news: Bundesbank said in the monthly report that there are “increasing signs that the German economy is slipping into a recession”. It added, “the high inflation and the uncertainty regarding the energy supply and its costs affect not only the gas and electricity-intensive industry and its export business and investments, but also private consumption and the service providers dependent on it.”

US Fed and BOE meetings are key events for the week.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : – US Building permits and housing starts

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.70. 50 day moving average is at 79.62.200 day moving average is at 76.98. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.58/79.46 and important resistance is at 79.85/79.94. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 79.79, S1:79.69, S2:79.54, R1:79.93, R2:80.04.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR imports be hedged at 79.30 and exports be hedged at 79.80+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.02/1.0360. Next major support is at 0.9865. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9865. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1740 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1405/1.1270. Important resistance is at 1.1740/1.19.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 145. Important support is at 141.50/137.50. Major resistance is at 145.

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