USDINR opened at 79.60 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.38-79.60 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.44, gain of 29 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.15. Rupee declined, tracking surge in USD index.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.58 on 14/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 79.62, gain of 37 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.25. Sep Euro/INR closed at 79.65, GBP/INR at 92.02 and Yen/INR at 55.67. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.90% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 553 bn as on Sep 9 th. FX reserves declined by USD 11 bn as compared to Aug 26 th data.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (14/09)|
In Sep till date FII’S have net bought Rs 1333 Cr of Equities in Cash segment and have bought Rs 167 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 1.50 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 133 points (0.75%). DOW climbed 30 points (0.10%). Nikkei declined 2.78% and Hang Seng declined 2.48%.
Euro is now at 0.9975, Pound at 1.1532, Yen at 142.98.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1703 and WT1Crude at USD 88/Brent at USD 94.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.41% and 3 m libor closed at 3.16%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.15%.
Economic news: US Money markets have shifted their expectations towards greater rate hike. While 75 bps is a done deal, Fed futures is pricing 36% probability for 100 bps rate hike. There is now an opinion that USD could rally by another 5% against Euro, GBP and Yen.
Data highlights: – US PPI declined -0.1% m/m. For the 12 months ended in August, PPI slowed from 9.8% yoy to 8.7% yoy, below expectation of 8.9% yoy.
-EU industrial production declined -2.3% m/m.
-UK CPI climbed 9.9% y/y, RPI climbed 12.3% y/y and PPI(output) declined -0.1% m/m.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, retail sales and industrial production.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.70. 50 day moving average is at 79.60.200 day moving average is at 76.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.05/78.95 and important resistance is at 79.70. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 79.59, S1:79.48, S2:79.35, R1:79.72, R2:79.83.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0110/1.0360. Next major support is at 0.9865. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9865. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2275 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1410. Important resistance is at 1.1710/1.19.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 130.40. Important support is at 139.50. Major resistance is at 145.
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