USDINR opened at 79.32 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.03-79.35 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.15, loss of 38 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.53. Rupee gained due to corporate inflows.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.06 on 13/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 79.25, loss of 38 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.63. Sep Euro/INR closed at 80.75, GBP/INR at 93.01 and Yen/INR at 55.93. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.90% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 553 bn as on Sep 9 th. FX reserves declined by USD 11 bn as compared to Aug 26 th data.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (13/09) |
| USDINR | 79.06 |
| EURINR | 80.22 |
| GBPINR | 92.68 |
| JPYINR | 55.62 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 133 points (0.75%). DOW declined 1276 points (3.94%). Nikkei climbed 0.25% and Hang Seng declined 0.18%.
Euro is now at 0.9974, Pound at 1.1492, Yen at 144.60.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1710 and WT1Crude at USD 87/Brent at USD 93.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.45% and 3 m libor closed at 3.16%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.15%.
Economic news: US Core CPI climbed 6.3% y/y vs 6.1% consensus. CPI climbed 8.3% y/y vs 8.1% consensus. As a result of the higher-than-expected CPI data, the US Dollar jumped dramatically. Markets are pricing fully 75 bps rate hike by Fed in upcoming meeting as inflation has become entrenched and had penetrated into overall Goods and services, not limiting to food and energy. US Stocks led by Tech stocks declined steeply due to higher than expected inflation.
Data highlights: – -EU and German Zew surveys declined to -60.7 and -61.9 respectively.
-UK unemployment rate dipped to 3.6%.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US PPI
-EU industrial production
-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)
| USD/INR | 79.35 | 79.03 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9974 | 1.0198 | 1.0064 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1492 | 1.1710 | 1.1601 | |
| USD/JPY | 144.60 | 143.49 | 142.16 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0041 | 1.0126 | 1.0273 | 1.0358 | 0.9894 | 0.9809 | 0.9662 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1574 | 1.1666 | 1.1830 | 1.1922 | 1.1410 | 1.1318 | 1.1154 |
| USD/JPY | 143.75 | 145.65 | 146.85 | 148.75 | 142.54 | 140.65 | 139.44 |
| USD/INR | 79.17 | 79.32 | 79.50 | 78.99 | 78.84 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9865 | 1.0110/1.0366 | DN | SIDE>1.0110 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1405 | 1.1710/1.19 | DN | SIDE>1.1720 |
| USD/JPY | 139.50/138.50/137 | 145 | UP | SIDE<137.70 |
| USD/INR | 79.30/79.18 | 79.70/79.80/79.94 | UP | DN<79.20 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9450 | 0.9750/0.9890 | SIDE | DN<0.9450 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.70. 50 day moving average is at 79.58.200 day moving average is at 76.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.05/78.95 and important resistance is at 79.70. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0110/1.0360. Next major support is at 0.9865. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9865. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2275 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1410. Important resistance is at 1.1710/1.19.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 130.40. Important support is at 139.50. Major resistance is at 145.
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