USDINR opened at 79.62 on Friday and the pair traded in the 79.46-79.65 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.58, loss of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.72.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.63 on 09/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 79.70, loss of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.81. Sep Euro/INR closed at 80.26, GBP/INR at 92.43 and Yen/INR at 56.21. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.90% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 553 bn as on Sep 9 th. FX reserves declined by USD 11 bn as compared to Aug 26 th data.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (09/09) |
| USDINR | 79.63 |
| EURINR | 80.18 |
| GBPINR | 92.34 |
| JPYINR | 55.72 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 34 points (0.19%). DOW climbed 377 points (1.19%). Nikkei climbed 0.53% and Hang Seng climbed 2.69%.
Euro is now at 1.0045, Pound at 1.1589, Yen at 142.57.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1727 and WT1Crude at USD 86/Brent at USD 92.40.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.31% and 3 m libor closed at 3.16%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.14%.
Economic news: Euro ended the week higher as ECB delivered 75 bps rate hike. Fed is also likely to increase rates by 75 bps this month end and Fed futures is pricing 91% probability for 75 bps rate hike. US CPI data to be released on Tuesday will seal this move. US stocks staged a strong rebound, ending a three-week losing streak.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Monday’s calendar : – UK GDP m/m, industrial and manufacturing production.
| USD/INR | 79.65 | 79.46 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0045 | 1.0112 | 0.9985 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1589 | 1.1648 | 1.1497 | |
| USD/JPY | 142.57 | 144.13 | 141.51 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0047 | 1.0109 | 1.0174 | 0.9982 | 0.9920 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.1578 | 1.1659 | 1.1729 | 1.1508 | 1.1729 | ||
| USD/JPY | 142.73 | 143.96 | 145.35 | 141.33 | 140.11 | ||
| USD/INR | 79.56 | 79.66 | 79.75 | 79.47 | 79.39 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9865 | 1.0110/1.0366 | DN | SIDE>1.0110 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1405 | 1.1710/1.19 | DN | SIDE>1.1720 |
| USD/JPY | 139.50/138.50/137 | 145 | UP | SIDE<137.70 |
| USD/INR | 79.30/79.18 | 79.94/80.12 | UP | DN<79.20 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9450 | 0.9750/0.9890 | SIDE | DN<0.9450 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.73. 50 day moving average is at 79.54.200 day moving average is at 76.85. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.30/79.18 and important resistance is at 80.12. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 79.69, S1:79.58, S2:79.47, R1:79.81, R2:79.91.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0110/1.0360. Next major support is at 0.9865. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9865. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2275 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1410. Important resistance is at 1.1710/1.19.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 130.40. Important support is at 139.50. Major resistance is at 145.
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