USDINR opened at 80.03 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.92-80.12 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.96, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.87. RBI sold USD at 80.06+ levels and halted Rupee’s fall. Rupee’s decline is in line with USD Index rally, which was supported by hawkish comments by Fed Chairman.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 80.09 on 29/08. Sep USD/INR closed at 80.13, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 80.08. Aug Euro/INR closed at 80.14, GBP/INR at 93.78 and Yen/INR at 58.01. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.03% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 564 bn as on Aug 26 th. FX reserves declined by USD 6 bn as compared to Aug 12 th data.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (29/08) |
| USDINR | 80.09 |
| EURINR | 79.61 |
| GBPINR | 93.48 |
| JPYINR | 57.71 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 246 points (1.40%) y’day. DOW declined 184 points (0.57%). Nikkei declined 2.66% and Hang Seng declined 0.73%.
Euro closed at 0.9985, Pound at 1.1692, Yen at 138.57.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1746 and WT1Crude at USD 96.60/Brent at USD 102.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.09% and 3 m libor closed at 2.92%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.25%.
Economic news: Global stocks declined steeply as Fed Chairman stated that there will be no let up in monetary policy tightening till the battle against inflation is over, even if it meant below trend growth and pain to households.
Chinese Yuan extended its decline to close at 2 year low, on the backdrop of weak Chinese economy and strong USD. Euro stabilized as ECB officials sounded hawkish with a possibility of 50 bps rate hike in next meeting.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US House price index.
| USD/INR | 80.12 | 79.92 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9985 | 1.0091 | 0.9947 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1692 | 1.1902 | 1.1732 | |
| USD/JPY | 138.57 | 137.57 | 136.29 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9979 | 1.0045 | 1.0095 | 1.0160 | 0.9929 | 0.9863 | 0.9813 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1703 | 1.1759 | 1.1810 | 1.1866 | 1.1652 | 1.1596 | 1.1545 |
| USD/JPY | 138.42 | 139.29 | 139.87 | 140.74 | 137.83 | 136.97 | 136.38 |
| USD/INR | 80 | 80.08 | 80.20 | 79.88 | 79.80 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0125/1.0270 | DN | UP>1.0370 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1645 | 1.1900/1.2040 | DN | SIDE>1.2275 |
| USD/JPY | 135.80/130.40 | 139.40 | UP | SIDE135<.80 |
| USD/INR | 79.9/79.81 | 80.12 | UP | SIDE<79.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9370 | 0.9650 | SIDE | DN<0.9470 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.56. 50 day moving average is at 79.32.200 day moving average is at 76.61. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 79.81/79.70/79.55 and important resistance is at 80.12. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0370. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0370. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2275 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1645. Important resistance is at 1.19/1.2040/1.2275.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 130.40. Important support is at 130.40. Major resistance is at 139.40.
