06/09/2018
USDINR opened at 71.40 y’day and the pair traded in the 71.39-71.95 range. Spot USDINR closed at 71.75, gain of 17 ps ps for USD as against prior close of 71.58.RBI reference rate was fixed at 71.75. Rupee has declined 12.5% from its high levels of 63.25 in this calendar year. Indian Equity indices declined on profit taking in blue chip stocks. Sep USD/INR closed at 71.92, gain of 18 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 71.74. Sep Euro/INR closed at 83.40, GBP/INR at 92.21 and Yen/INR at 64.48.
FII’S have bought Rs 72 Cr of Indian Equities in Aug till 29/8 . FII’S have bought Rs 3801 Cr of Indian debt securities in Aug 29/8 . On a cumulative basis, FII’S have bought Rupees 2101 Cr of Indian Equities till date for this calendar year and have sold Rupees 37338 Cr of Indian debt in this calendar year till date.
Benchmark Nifty declined 0.38% y’day. DOW declined 12 points (0.05%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.51% and Hang seng declined 2.61 % y’iday.
Euro is now at 1.1647 , Pound at 1.2925,Yen at 111.28.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1205 and WT1Crude at USD 68.56.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.90% and 3 m libor closed at 2.36%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 8.06%.
Economic news: Global risk aversion and brutal selling in EM currencies with high current account deficits continued. Trade tensions , strong US growth and USD rate hike continued to cast its influence on EM Currencies. Besides Indian Rupee, Indonesia Rupiah, South African Rand, Russian and Turkish currencies melted.
Data Highlights: US trade deficit expanded to USD 50.1 bn.
-EU PMI(services) was finalized at 54.4 and retail sales declined -0.2% m/m.
-UK PMI(services) climbed to 54.3.
Thursday’s calendar: – US weekly jobless claims, ISM(non mfrg), factory orders and ADP employment report
-German factory orders
| USD/INR | 71.95 | 71.39 | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1647 | 1.1636 | 1.1544 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2925 | 1.2983 | 1.2786 |
| USD/JPY | 111.28 | 111.76 | 111.40 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| CurrencyPairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.1605 | 1.1666 | 1.1697 | 1.11758 | 1.1574 | 1.1513 | 1.1482 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2894 | 1.3002 | 1.3091 | 1.3199 | 1.2805 | 1.2697 | 1.2608 |
| USD/JPY | 111.54
|
111.68 | 111.90 | 112.04
|
111.32 | 111.18 | 110.96
|
| USD/INR | 71.69 | 72 | 72.25 | 71.43 | 71.13 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Curency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.1510/1.13 | 1.1730/1.1960 | SIDE | DN<1.15 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2660 | 1.3050/1.3250 | SIDE | DN<1.28 |
| USD/JPY | 109.70 | 113.10 | UP | DN<109.70 |
| USD/INR | 70.30/69.50 | 72.60 | UP | SIDE<70.30 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9440 | 0.9850 | DN | UP >0.9850 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 100 and 200 day major moving averages. 20 day moving is at 69.86. 50 day moving average is at 69.12. 200 day moving average is at 66.22. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying bottom at 68.30 . Important support zone is at 70.30 and later at 69.52. Important resistance is at 72.60. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intra day supports and resistances for Sep contract are:
PP: 71.88,S1:71.60, S2:71.28, R1:72.20, R2:72.48.
Hedging strategy for USD/INR: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Next Major resistance is at 1.1730 and later at 1.1960. Major support is at 1.13. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.13. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2560.
GBP/USD: Trend is bearish in daily chart. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2662 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.4375. The pair is trading below all major moving averages. Important resistance is at 1.3050 and later at 1.3250. Important support is at 1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 109.70. Next important support is at 109.70. Important resistance is 113.
