USDINR opened at 79.82 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.70-79.86 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.81, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.87.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.79 on 24/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 79.87, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.91. Aug Euro/INR closed at 79.43, GBP/INR at 94.20 and Yen/INR at 58.47. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.03% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 570 bn as on Aug 12 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (24/08) |
| USDINR | 79.79 |
| EURINR | 79.33 |
| GBPINR | 94.22 |
| JPYINR | 58.36 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 86 points (0.50%) y’day. DOW climbed 59 points (0.18%). Nikkei declined 0.49% and Hang Seng declined 1.20%.
Euro is now at 0.9987, Pound at 1.1818, Yen at 136.75.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1768 and WT1Crude at USD 95/Brent at USD 102.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.10% and 3 m libor closed at 2.92%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.29%.
Economic news: Crude prices rose and Equities consolidated. Markets await US Fed Chairman’s speech at Jackson Hole symposium.
Data highlights: – US durables order was flat m/m.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims and GDP(preliminary)
-German Ifo survey
-ECB minutes
| USD/INR | 79.86 | 79.70 | ||
| EUR/USD | 0.9987 | 1.0000 | 0.9909 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1818 | 1.1842 | 1.1755 | |
| USD/JPY | 136.75 | 137.26 | 136.17 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 0.9958 | 1.0007 | 1.0049 | 1.0097 | 0.9916 | 0.9867 | 0.9825 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1798 | 1.1841 | 1.1885 | 1.1928 | 1.1754 | 1.1711 | 1.1667 |
| USD/JPY | 136.85 | 137.53 | 137.94 | 138.62 | 136.44 | 135.76 | 135.35 |
| USD/INR | 79.79 | 79.88 | 79.95 | 79.72 | 79.63 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0125/1.0270 | DN | UP>1.0370 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1750 | 1.2040/1.2275 | DN | SIDE>1.2275 |
| USD/JPY | 130.40 | 139.40 | UP | SIDE>135.50 |
| USD/INR | 79.38/79.20/78.80 | 80.06 | UP | DN<79.20 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9370 | 0.9650 | SIDE | DN<0.9470 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.54. 50 day moving average is at 79.21.200 day moving average is at 76.49. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 79.20/78.90 and important resistance is at 80.06. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0370. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1,0370. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2275 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2040/1.2275.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 130.40. Important support is at 130.40. Major resistance is at 139.40.
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