USDINR opened at 79.75 on Friday and the pair traded in the 79.72-79.80 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.78, gain of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.68.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.75 on 19/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 79.94, gain of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.67. Aug Euro/INR closed at 80.40, GBP/INR at 94.70 and Yen/INR at 58.49. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.02% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 570 bn as on Aug 12 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (19/08) |
| USDINR | 79.75 |
| EURINR | 80.42 |
| GBPINR | 94.98 |
| JPYINR | 58.51 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 198 points (1.13%) on Friday. DOW declined 292 points (0.86%). Nikkei declined 0.04% and Hang Seng climbed 0.05%.
Euro is now at 1.0037, Pound at 1.1831, Yen at 136.93.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1760 and WT1Crude at USD 90/Brent at USD 96.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.97% and 3 m libor closed at 2.92%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.28%.
Economic news: Dollar index staged a strong rally last week to close at 108.16. The upside momentum is very impressive and it’s raising the chance of up trend resumption. USD index could break its previous high, should US 10 Year yield climb above 3.45% peak. Focus is on US Durables order and spending data.
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims dipped to 250k and existing home sales declined to 4.81 mn.
US PMI(mfrg-flash survey) and new home sales
-EU PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash)
-UK PMI(mfrg-flash) and PMI(services-flash), UK retail sales climbed 0.3% M/M.
Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 79.80 | 79.72 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0037 | 1.0096 | 1.0031 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1831 | 1.1942 | 1.1791 | |
| USD/JPY | 136.93 | 137.24 | 135.71 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0054 | 1.0078 | 1.0119 | 1.0012 | 0.9989 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.1854 | 1.1918 | 1.2005 | 1.1766 | 1.1703 | ||
| USD/JPY | 136.62 | 137.54 | 138.15 | 136 | 135.09 | ||
| USD/INR | 79.76 | 79.81 | 79.85 | 79.72 | 79.67 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0125/1.0270 | DN | UP>1.0370 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1750 | 1.2040/1.2275 | DN | SIDE>1.2275 |
| USD/JPY | 130.40 | 139.40 | UP | SIDE>135.50 |
| USD/INR | 79.20/78.90/78.50 | 79.80/80.06 | SIDE | UP>79.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9370 | 0.9650 | SIDE | DN<0.9470 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.55. 50 day moving average is at 79.08.200 day moving average is at 76.49. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 79.20/78.90 and important resistances are at 79.80/80.06. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 79.88, S1:79.81, S2:79.70, R1:80, R2:80.06.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR imports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0370. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1,0370. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2275 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2040/1.2275.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 130.40. Important support is at 130.40. Major resistance is at 139.40.
