USDINR opened at 79.55 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.41-79.61 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.52, gain of 41 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.65.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.50 on 10/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 79.64, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.74. Aug Euro/INR closed at 81.67, GBP/INR at 96.41 and Yen/INR at 59.08. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.02% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 573.85 bn as on July 29 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (10/08) |
| USDINR | 79.50 |
| EURINR | 81.15 |
| GBPINR | 95.96 |
| JPYINR | 58.86 |
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day (0%) y’day. DOW climbed 535 points (1,63%). Nikkei declined 0.65% and Hang Seng declined 1.96%.
Euro is now at 1.0290, Pound at 1.2197, Yen at 133.15.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1803 and WT1Crude at USD 91/Brent at USD 97.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.79% and 3 m libor closed at 2.79%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.33%.
Economic news: In July, US CPI was at 0.0% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. CPI core rose 0.3% mom, below expectation of 0.5% mom. However, CPI still rose 8.5% y/y. USD declined against majors. Despite decline in headline inflation, Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 bps in Sept and then slow down to 25 bps rate hike in Dec.
Data highlights: –
Thursday’s calendar : –US PPI and weekly jobless claims
| USD/INR | 79.61 | 79.41 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0290 | 1.0368 | 1.0202 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2197 | 1.2277 | 1.2065 | |
| USD/JPY | 133.15 | 135.30 | 132.04 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0290 | 1.0378 | 1.0456 | 1.0544 | 1.0212 | 1.0124 | 1.0046 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2184 | 1.2303 | 1.2396 | 1.2515 | 1.2091 | 1.1972 | 1.1879 |
| USD/JPY | 133.39 | 134.74 | 136.65 | 137.99 | 131.48 | 130.13 | 128.22 |
| USD/INR | 79.51 | 79.61 | 79.71 | 79.41 | 79.31 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0125/0.9935 | 1.0270/1.0350/1.0450 | DN | SIDE>1.05 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2040/1.1890/1.1750 | 1.2245/1.24 | DN | SIDE>1.2230 |
| USD/JPY | 130.40 | 135.50/137.50 | DN | SIDE>135.50 |
| USD/INR | 79.10/78.84/78.50 | 79.80/80.06 | SIDE | UP>79.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9490 | 0.9890 | SIDE | DN<0.9490 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.61. 50 day moving average is at 78.88.200 day moving average is at 76.33. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 78.85/78.50 and important resistances are at 79.80/80.06. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 79.65, S1:79.53, S2:79.42, R1:79.76, R2:79.88.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged near 79.70 levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 78.85/78.50.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0270/1.0450. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9935. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1750 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2040/1.1890. Important resistance is at 1.2245/1.2450.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 139.40. Important support is at 130.50. Major resistance is at 139.40 with intermediate resistances at 135.50/137.50.
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