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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • 30 Comments
  • February 7, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.03 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.02-83.07 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.04, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 82.91.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.06 on 06/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 83.11, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.11. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.33, GBP/INR at 104.31 and Yen/INR at 56.12. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.78% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 616.73 bn, as on Jan 26 th.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (06/02)

USDINR

83.06

EURINR

89.30

GBPINR

104.25

JPYINR

55.96

In Feb, FPI’S have bought Rs 312 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2267 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 158 points (0.72%) y’day. US S&P climbed 11 points (0.23%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.56% and Hang Seng climbed 4.04% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0766, Pound at 1.2611, Yen at 147.88.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2026 and WT1Crude at USD 73.50/Brent at USD 78.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.10% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.

Economic news: Euro continued to decline against USD as inflation expectations trended down. EU retail sales also declined.

Data highlights: – German factory orders climbed 8.9% m/m and EU retail sales declined -1.1% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 48.8.

Wednesday’s calendar : –  German industrial production.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.07

83.02

EUR/USD

1.0766

  

1.0762

1.0722

GBP/USD

1.2611

  

1.2606

1.2534

USD/JPY

147.88

  

148.82

147.75

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0747

1.0772

1.0788

1.0813

1.0732

1.0706

1.0691

GBP/USD

1.2581

1.2628

1.2653

1.2701

1.2556

1.2509

1.2484

USD/JPY

148.13

148.51

149.20

149.58

147.44

147.06

146.36

USD/INR

83.04

83.08

83.12

 

83

82.96

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0770/1.0725

1.09

SIDE

UP>1.09

GBP/USD

1.2560/1.2480

1.28

SIDE

UP>1.28

USD/JPY

146/144.35

148.90/150

UP

SIDE<145.90

USD/INR

82.80

83.18/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8550

0.8850

SIDE

DN>0.8550

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.08. 50 day moving average is at 83.19.200 day moving average is at 82.78. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.17/83.24. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 83.10, S1:83.08, S2:83.05, R1:83.12, R2:83.15.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.0770/1.0725. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2550/1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 148.90/150 and support is at 145.90/144.35.

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Comments

  1. securitysolutions
    February 8, 2024
    Reply

    securitysolutions

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