USDINR opened at 78.94 y’day and the pair traded in the 78.50-78.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78.71, loss of 31 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.02.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 78.60 on 02/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 78.82, loss of 46 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.28. Aug Euro/INR closed at 80.86, GBP/INR at 96.37 and Yen/INR at 60.31. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.20% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 571 bn as on July 29 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (02/08) |
| USDINR | 78.60 |
| EURINR | 80.58 |
| GBPINR | 96.16 |
| JPYINR | 60.04 |
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day (0%) y’day. DOW declined 402 points (1.23%). Nikkei declined 1.42% and Hang Seng declined 2.54%.
Euro is now at 1.0164, Pound at 1.2155, Yen at 133.47.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1778 and WT1Crude at USD 94/Brent at USD 100.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.72% and 3 m libor closed at 2.73%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.22%.
Economic news: Rupee gained, despite new geo political tensions over US Speaker’s visit to Taiwan. Focus is on RBI meeting and US employment data.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Wednesday’s calendar : US ISM(non mfrg)
-EU PMI(services-final), PPI, retail sales
-UK PMI(services)
| USD/INR | 78.94 | 78.50 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0164 | 1.0294 | 1.0155 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2155 | 1.2279 | 1.2141 | |
| USD/JPY | 133.47 | 133.59 | 130.43 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0202 | 1.0249 | 1.0341 | 1.0389 | 1.0110 | 1.0063 | 0.9971 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2188 | 1.2235 | 1.2326 | 1.2373 | 1.2097 | 1.2050 | 1.1958 |
| USD/JPY | 132.45 | 134.47 | 135.61 | 137.64 | 131.31 | 129.29 | 128.15 |
| USD/INR | 78.71 | 78.93 | 79.15 | 78.48 | 78.27 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0270/1.0350/1.0450 | DN | SIDE>1.05 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2040/1.1890/1.1750 | 1.2245/1.24 | DN | SIDE>1.2230 |
| USD/JPY | 131.50/130 | 135.50/137.50 | DN | SIDE>135.50 |
| USD/INR | 79.10/78.84 | 79.38/79.70 | SIDE | UP>79.70 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9490 | 0.9890 | SIDE | DN<0.9490 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.60. 50 day moving average is at 78.70.200 day moving average is at 76.23. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 78.25 and important resistances are at 78.84/79.10. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 78.91, S1:78.58, S2:78.35, R1:79.13, R2:79.47.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be hedged near 79.70 levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 79.10/78.85.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0270/1.0450. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9935. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1750 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.2040/1.1890. Important resistance is at 1.2245/1.2450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 moving average, but above 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 139.40. Important support is at 131.50/130. Major resistance is at 139.40 with intermediate resistances at 135.50/137.50.
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