USDINR opened at 79.78 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.71-79.85 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.75, loss of 15 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.90. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.74 on 28/07. Aug USD/INR closed at 79.90, gain of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 80.14. Aug Euro/INR closed at 81.12, GBP/INR at 96.81 and Yen/INR at 59.04. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.12% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 580 bn as on July 15 th.

In July till date FII’S have net bought Rs 1360 Cr of Equities in Cash segment and have bought Rs 977 Cr of debt till date. In this Calendar Year, FII’S have sold close to Rs 2 lac Cr worth of Equities. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 332 points (1.03%) y’day. DOW climbed 436 points (1.37%). Nikkei climbed 0.36% and Hang Seng declined 0.23%.

Euro is now at 1.0193, Pound at 1.2168, Yen at 134.30.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1752 and WT1Crude at USD 97/Brent at USD 102.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.69% and 3 m libor closed at 2.73%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.34%.

Economic news: US GDP contracted an annualized -0.9% in Q2, much worse than expectation of 0.4% rise. That’s the second quarter of contraction, after Q1’s -1.6% annualized.

Benchmark treasury yield in both the US and Germany tumbled sharply, aiding Yen’s advance. US Stocks rallied as market now bets on gradual rate hikes due to recession.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims declined to 256k.

Friday’s calendar :  – US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index

-EU CPI and GDP

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.62. 50 day moving average is at 78.62.200 day moving average is at 76.10. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.38/79.10/78.85 and important resistance is at 80.06. Spot closed below its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 79.93, S1:79.79, S2:79.67, R1:80.03, R2:80.20.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 80+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 79.35/79.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.0450. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9935. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1750 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.2230.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 139.40. Important support is at 134.35. Major resistance is at 139.40.

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