USDINR opened at 79.71 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.71-79.81 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.76, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.73. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.79 on 26/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.79, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.81. June Euro/INR closed at 80.93, GBP/INR at 95.70 and Yen/INR at 58.38. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.12% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 580 bn as on July 15 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (26/07) |
| USDINR | 79.79 |
| EURINR | 81.56 |
| GBPINR | 96.21 |
| JPYINR | 58.37 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 147 points (0.88%) y’day. DOW declined 228 points (0.71%). Nikkei declined 0.24% and Hang Seng climbed 1.67%.
Euro is now at 1.0140, Pound at 1.2041, Yen at 137.07.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1716 and WT1Crude at USD 95.50/Brent at USD 100.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.81% and 3 m libor closed at 2.73%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.37%.
Economic news: Euro is under heavy selling pressure today on renewed worries over cut off of Russia gas supply. It’s additionally pressured and Germany 10-year yield breaks below 1% handle again. Fed meeting is the focus event for the day.
Data highlights: – US new home sales declined to 590k, Consumer confidence dipped to 95.7 and House price index climbed 1.4% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US Durables order, Pending home sales and FOMC meeting.
| USD/INR | 79.81 | 79.71 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0140 | 1.0250 | 1.0108 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2041 | 1.2091 | 1.1964 | |
| USD/JPY | 137.07 | 136.99 | 136.29 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0162 | 1.0216 | 1.0304 | 1.0358 | 1.0074 | 1.0020 | 0.9932 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2030 | 1.2096 | 1.2157 | 1.2222 | 1.1969 | 1.1903 | 1.1843 |
| USD/JPY | 136.75 | 137.21 | 137.45 | 137.91 | 136.51 | 136.05 | 135.82 |
| USD/INR | 79.76 | 79.81 | 79.86 | 79.71 | 79.66 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0270/1.0350/1.0450 | DN | SIDE>1.05 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1750 | 1.2160/1.2230 | DN | SIDE>1.2230 |
| USD/JPY | 134.35 | 139.50 | UP | SIDE<134.35 |
| USD/INR | 79.50 | 80.06/80.25 | UP | SIDE<79.45 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9490 | 0.9890 | SIDE | DN<0.9490 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.53. 50 day moving average is at 78.53.200 day moving average is at 76.10. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.50/79.10/78.85 and important resistance is at 80.06. Spot closed at its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 79.77, S1:79.73, S2:79.68, R1:79.82, R2:79.86.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 80+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 79.35/79.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.0450. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9935. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1750 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.2230.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 139.40. Important support is at 134.35. Major resistance is at 139.40.
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