USDINR opened at 79.84 on y’day and the pair traded in the 79.70-79.87 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.73, loss of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.85. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.85 on 25/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.81, loss of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.96. June Euro/INR closed at 81.75, GBP/INR at 96.34 and Yen/INR at 58.47. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.12% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 580 bn as on July 15 th.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (25/07) |
| USDINR | 79.85 |
| EURINR | 81.44 |
| GBPINR | 95.57 |
| JPYINR | 58.54 |
Benchmark Nifty declined 88 points (0.53%) y’day. DOW climbed 90 points (0.26%). Nikkei declined 0.77% and Hang Seng declined 0.22%.
Euro is now at 1.0242, Pound at 1.2075, Yen at 136.40.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1724 and WT1Crude at USD 97/Brent at USD 100.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.78% and 3 m libor closed at 2.73%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.39%.
Economic news: Rupee gained as Brent Crude declined to USD 97. EU Countries lifted sanctions on shipping lines transporting Russian Crude, citing Global energy and food security. Euro also steadied at around 1.0250. Focus is on US Fed meeting.
Data highlights: – German Ifo survey dipped to 88.6.
Tuesday’s calendar : – US new home sales, Consumer confidence and House price index.
| USD/INR | 79.87 | 79.70 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0242 | 1.0257 | 1.0180 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.2075 | 1.2086 | 1.1961 | |
| USD/JPY | 136.40 | 136.79 | 135.90 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0220 | 1.0260 | 1.0297 | 1.0337 | 1.0183 | 1.0143 | 1.0106 |
| GBP/USD | 1.2034 | 1.2107 | 1.2159 | 1.2233 | 1.1982 | 1.1909 | 1.1856 |
| USD/JPY | 136.37 | 136.84 | 137.27 | 137.74 | 135.95 | 135.47 | 135.05 |
| USD/INR | 79.76 | 79.83 | 79.93 | 79.65 | 79.59 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0270/1.0350/1.0450 | DN | SIDE>1.05 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1750 | 1.2160/1.2230 | DN | SIDE>1.2230 |
| USD/JPY | 134.35 | 139.50 | UP | SIDE<134.35 |
| USD/INR | 79.45 | 80.06/80.25 | UP | SIDE<79.45 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9490 | 0.9890 | SIDE | DN<0.9490 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.48. 50 day moving average is at 78.48.200 day moving average is at 76.10. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important supports are at 79.45/79.10/78.85 and important resistance is at 80.06. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 79.80, S1:79.70, S2:79.60, R1:79.90, R2:80.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 80+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 79.35/79.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.0450. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 0.9935. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1750 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.2230.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 139.40. Important support is at 134.35. Major resistance is at 139.40.
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