USDINR opened at 79.91 y”day and the pair traded in the 79.91-79.99 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.98, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.95. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.97 on 20/07. July USD/INR closed at 80.09, gain of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 80.01. June Euro/INR closed at 81.71, GBP/INR at 95.95 and Yen/INR at 58.05. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.12% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 580 bn as on July 15 th.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (19/07)|
In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 163515 Cr of Equities in Cash segment till date and have sold Rs 8486 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 180 points (1.10%) y’day. DOW climbed 47 points (0.15%). Nikkei climbed 2.67% and Hang Seng climbed 1.11%.
Euro closed at 1.0185, Pound at 1.1970, Yen at 138.41.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1688 and WT1Crude at USD 99/Brent at USD 106.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.02% and 3 m libor closed at 2.79%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.45%.
Economic news: Govt slashed Windfall tax on crude production to 17000/tonne from Rs 23,250. Export duty on Petrol is scrapped and duty on diesel and ATF is slashed by Rs 2/. Special additional excise duty levied on exports from SEZ zone is exempted. Indian Equity indices led by Reliance has climbed steeply on this news. ECB meeting is the focus event.
Data highlights: – – US existing home sales dipped to 5.12 mn.
-UK CPI climbed 9.4% y/y, RPI climbed 11.8% y/y and PPI(output) climbed 1.4% y/y
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 79.25. 50 day moving average is at 78.33.200 day moving average is at 75.93. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 79.35/79.10/78.85 and important resistance is at 80.25. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 80.06, S1:79.98, S2:79.87, R1:80.17, R2:80.25.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79.90+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 79.35/79.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.05. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0625. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.24.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 134.75. Important support is at 136/134.35. Major resistance is at 140.50.
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