USDINR opened at 79.92 on Friday and the pair traded in the 79.82-79.96 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.87, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 79.87. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.88 on 15/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.93, loss of 17 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 80.10. June Euro/INR closed at 80.45, GBP/INR at 94.60 and Yen/INR at 57.68. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.90% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 588 bn as on July 1 st.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (15/07) |
| USDINR | 79.88 |
| EURINR | 80.01 |
| GBPINR | 94.40 |
| JPYINR | 57.53 |
Benchmark Nifty climbed 110 points (0.69%) on Friday. DOW climbed 658 points (2.15%). Nikkei climbed 0.54% and Hang Seng declined 2.19%.
Euro closed at 1.0086, Pound at 1.1857, Yen at 138.54.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1706 and WT1Crude at USD 97.55/Brent at USD 101.10.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.93% and 3 m libor closed at 2.48%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.
Economic news: Chinese GDP grew only 0.4% yoy in Q2, missing even the expectation of 1.0% yoy. Next week focus is on ECB meeting.
Data highlights: – – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 244k and PPI climbed 1.1% m/m.
Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.
| USD/INR | 79.96 | 79.82 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0086 | 1.0098 | 1.0008 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1857 | 1.1875 | 1.1805 | |
| USD/JPY | 138.54 | 139.13 | 138.40 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0064 | 1.0120 | 1.0154 | 1.0030 | 0.9974 | ||
| GBP/USD | 1.1845 | 1.1886 | 1.1915 | 1.1815 | 1.1775 | ||
| USD/JPY | 138.69 | 138.98 | 139.42 | 138.25 | 137.96 | ||
| USD/INR | 79.88 | 79.94 | 80.02 | 79.80 | 79.74 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 0.9935 | 1.0240/1.0350 | DN | SIDE>1.05 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1750 | 1.2160/1.24 | DN | SIDE>1.2410 |
| USD/JPY | 136/134.35 | 140.50 | UP | SIDE<136 |
| USD/INR | 79.37/79.11/78.85 | 80.25 | UP | SIDE<78.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9460 | 1.0053 | UP | DN<0.9460 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78.98. 50 day moving average is at 78.16.200 day moving average is at 75.93. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 79.35/79.10/78.85 and important resistance is at 80.25. Spot closed below its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 79.95, S1:79.85, S2:79.78, R1:80.02, R2:80.12.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79.90+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 79.35/79.10.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.05. Next major support is at 0.9935. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0625. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1750. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.24.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 134.75. Important support is at 136/134.35. Major resistance is at 140.50.
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