USDINR opened at 79.22 y’day and the pair traded in the 79.22-79.44 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.44, gain of 19 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.25. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.41 on 11/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.59, gain of 18 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.41. June Euro/INR closed at 80.55, GBP/INR at 95.18 and Yen/INR at 58.12. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.98% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 588 bn as on July 1 st.
| PAIRS | RBI REF RATE (11/07) |
| USDINR | 79.41 |
| EURINR | 80.49 |
| GBPINR | 95.04 |
| JPYINR | 57.98 |
Benchmark Nifty closed flat y’day. DOW declined 165 points (0.52%). Nikkei climbed 1.11% and Hang Seng declined 2.77%.
Euro closed at 1.0013, Pound at 1.1864, Yen at 137.23.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1724 and WT1Crude at USD 102/Brent at USD 105.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.97% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.
Economic news: Indian CPI and IIP are the key events along with US CPI and retail sales data.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Tuesday’s calendar : EU and German Zew surveys
| USD/INR | 79.44 | 79.22 | ||
| EUR/USD | 1.0013 | 1.0167 | 1.0034 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1864 | 1.2020 | 1.1867 | |
| USD/JPY | 137.23 | 137.76 | 136.24 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
| Currency Pairs | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 | S1 | S2 | S3 |
| EURO/USD | 1.0082 | 1.0130 | 1.0215 | 1.0263 | 0.9997 | 0.9949 | 0.9864 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1929 | 1.1991 | 1.2082 | 1.2144 | 1.1838 | 1.1776 | 1.1685 |
| USD/JPY | 137.13 | 138.02 | 138.65 | 139.55 | 136.50 | 135.61 | 134.98 |
| USD/INR | 79.36 | 79.51 | 79.58 | 79.28 | 79.14 |
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
| Currency Pair | Supports | Resistances | Trend | Remarks |
| EURO/USD | 1.0050 | 1.0350 | DN | SIDE>1.05 |
| GBP/USD | 1.1850 | 1.2160/1.24 | DN | SIDE>1.2410 |
| USD/JPY | 134.35/131.35 | 137 | UP | SIDE<131.35 |
| USD/INR | 78.80/78.45 | 79.75 | UP | SIDE<78.80 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9460 | 1.0053 | UP | DN<0.9460 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78.64. 50 day moving average is at 77.90.200 day moving average is at 75.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 78.80/78.45 and important resistance is at 79.75. Spot closed above its at level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 79.51, S1:79.40, S2:79.22, R1:79.70, R2:79.80.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79.35+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 78.85/78.45.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.05. Next major support is at 1.0030. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0625. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1850. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.24.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137. Important support is at 134.35/131.35. Major resistance is at 137.
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