USDINR opened at 79.18 on Friday and the pair traded in the 79.18-79.32 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.25, gain of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.18. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.25 on 08/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.41, gain of 13 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.28. June Euro/INR closed at 80.65, GBP/INR at 95.22 and Yen/INR at 58.54. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.98% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 588 bn as on July 1 st.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (08/07)|
In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 98014 Cr of Equities till June end and have sold Rs 8486 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 87 points (0.54%) on Friday. DOW declined 46 points (0.15%). Nikkei climbed 0.10% and Hang Seng climbed 0.38%.
Euro closed at 1.0183, Pound at 1.2027, Yen at 136.08.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1740 and WT1Crude at USD 105/Brent at USD 107.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.08% and 3 m libor closed at 2.39%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.41%.
Economic news: US non-farm payroll employment rose 372k in June, well above expectation of 250k. That’s in line with the average monthly gain over the prior three months at 383k. Total non-farm employment was still down by 524k, or -0.3%, from pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%, matched expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations.
Fed is expected to hike rates by 75 bps in July meeting as employment data is robust.
Data highlights: –
Monday’s calendar : No major data release.
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78.57. 50 day moving average is at 77.84.200 day moving average is at 75.78. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 78.80/78.45 and important resistance is at 79.45. Spot closed at its at level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 79.22, S1:79.05, S2:78.83, R1:79.44, R2:79.61.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79.35+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 78.85/78.45.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0350/1.05. Next major support is at 1.0030. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0625. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1850. Important resistance is at 1.2160/1.24.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137. Important support is at 134.35/131.35. Major resistance is at 137.
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