USDINR opened at 79.07 y’day and the pair traded in the 78.90-79.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.18, loss of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 79.30. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.02 on 07/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.28, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.24. June Euro/INR closed at 81, GBP/INR at 95.01 and Yen/INR at 58.53. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.03% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 593 bn as on June 24 th.

In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 95856 Cr of Equities till June end and have sold Rs 8299 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 143 points (0.89%) y’day. DOW climbed 346 points (1.12%). Nikkei climbed 1.47% and Hang Seng climbed 0.26%.

Euro closed at 1.0189, Pound at 1.2053, Yen at 135.83.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1744 and WT1Crude at USD 103/Brent at USD 105.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.99% and 3 m libor closed at 2.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.35%.

Economic news: Rupee gained to 78.90 at open y’day. It continued to weaken and hit 79.27 in afternoon trades. USDINR closed at 79.18. RBI has announced measures to encourage inflows.

ECB’s June 8-9 monetary policy meeting minutes noted that, “most members” supported to signal the 25bps rate hike at the July meeting. Starting the rate-hiking cycle with a step of this magnitude was seen as a “proportionate first step”. But “a number of members expressed an initial preference for keeping the door open for a larger hike at the July meeting”

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims increased to 235k .

-German industrial production climbed 0.2% m/m.

Friday’s calendar :  US Nonfarm payrolls

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78.50. 50 day moving average is at 77.78.200 day moving average is at 75.64. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 78.80/78.45 and important resistance is at 79.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 79.22, S1:79.05, S2:78.83, R1:79.44, R2:79.61.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79.15+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 78.85/78.45.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0625/1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0625. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1935. Important resistance is at 1.24/1.2660.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 137.

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