USDINR opened at 79 y’day and the pair traded in the 78.99-79.38 range. Spot USDINR closed at 79.37, gain of 42 ps for USD as against prior close of 78.95. RBI reference rate was fixed at 79.08 on 05/07. July USD/INR closed at 79.50, gain of 42 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.08. June Euro/INR closed at 81.95, GBP/INR at 95.43 and Yen/INR at 58.54. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.95% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 593 bn as on June 24 th.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (05/07)|
In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 95856 Cr of Equities till June end and have sold Rs 8299 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 83 points (0.53%) y’day. DOW declined 129 points (-0.42%). Nikkei climbed 0.83% and Hang Seng declined 0.13%.
Euro closed at 1.0269, Pound at 1.1969, Yen at 135.46.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1770 and WT1Crude at USD 101/Brent at USD 105.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 2.83% and 3 m libor closed at 2.27%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.37%.
Economic news: Indian PMI services rose to 11 year high of 59.2. Rupee entered into a new phase of decline as Euro fell steeply and USD gained against majors. Equity indices reversed early gains. Euro and Pound declined steeply as recession fears entrenched leading market to believe that ECB may not be able to hike rates in this situation. ECB June PMI readings correspond to 0.2% GDP growth. Commodities crashed along with Equities. Oil prices dropped $10 on Tuesday as concerns about a possible global recession curtailing demand outweighed supply disruption fears, highlighted by an expected production cut in Norway.
Data highlights: – US factory orders climbed 1.6% m/m.
-EU PMI(services-final) was reported at 53, 5 month low.
-UK PMI(services-final) climbed to 54.3.
Wednesday’s calendar : US ISM (non mfrg)
–EU retail sales and German factory orders
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78.35. 50 day moving average is at 77.68.200 day moving average is at 75.64. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 78.8078.45 and important resistance is at 79.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 79.38, S1:79.22, S2:78.94, R1:79.66, R2:79.82.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 78.55/78.30.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0625/1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0625. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2410 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1935. Important resistance is at 1.24/1.2660.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 137. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 137.
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