FX MORNING UPDATE        

USDINR opened at 78.88 y’day and the pair traded in the 78.88-78.98 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78.97, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 78.78. RBI reference rate was fixed at 78.94 on 30/06July USD/INR closed at 79.12, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 79.16. June Euro/INR closed at 82.35, GBP/INR at 95.84 and Yen/INR at 58.17. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.95% p.a.  FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.

PAIRSRBI REF RATE (30/06)
USDINR78.94
EURINR82.58
GBPINR95.95
JPYINR57.96

In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 89224 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 5593 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs  42820 Cr in debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 18 points (0.12%) Y’day. DOW declined 253 points (0.82%). Nikkei declined 1.54% and Hang Seng declined 0.62%.

Euro closed at 1.0471, Pound at 1.2155, Yen at 135.86.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1807 and WT1Crude at USD 106.30/Brent at USD 109.45.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.01% and 3 m libor closed at 2.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.43%.

Economic news: US spending and Core PCE data were in line with expectations. Inflation continued to remain at elevated levels.

Rupee decline showed no respite as USD Index climbed higher on Fed member’s comments on rate hikes.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 231k, personal spending declined 0.2% m/m, income rose 0.5% m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.3% m/m.

-EU unemployment rate declined to 6.6%.

-UK GDP grew 0.8% q/q in Q1.

Friday’s calendar :  – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending

-EU CPI

USD/INR   78.9878.88
EUR/USD      1.04711.04881.0382
GBP/USD      1.21551.21891.2092
USD/JPY      135.86136.80135.55

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency PairsPivotR1R2R3S1S2S3
EURO/USD1.04491.05161.05551.06211.04101.03431.0304
GBP/USD1.21471.22021.22431.22981.21051.20511.2009
USD/JPY136.05136.55137.30137.80135.30134.80134.05
USD/INR78.9479.0179.045 78.9178.85 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency PairSupportsResistancesTrendRemarks
EURO/USD1.03501.0625/1.0790DNUP>1.0790
GBP/USD1.19351.2660/1.28DNSIDE>1.2660
USD/JPY131.35/126.35136.75UPSIDE<131.35
USD/INR78.55/78.2879.24/79.45UPSIDE<78.28
USD/CHF0.94600.9725DNUP>0.9725

Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78.14. 50 day moving average is at 77.51.200 day moving average is at 75.50. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 78.28 and important resistance is at 79.25/79.45. Spot closed above its average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 79.10, S1:79.05, S2:78.97, R1:79.17, R2:79.23.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 79+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 78.30.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0625/1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1935 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1935. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 136.75.

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