USDINR opened at 78.51 y’iday and the pair traded in the 78.51-78.87 range. Spot USDINR closed at 78.78, gain of 54 ps for USD as against prior close of 78.34. RBI reference rate was fixed at 78.69 on 28/06. July USD/INR closed at 79.10, gain of 47 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 78.63. June Euro/INR closed at 83.82, GBP/INR at 96.88 and Yen/INR at 58.21. USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 3.08% p.a. FX reserves stands at USD 601.1 bn.
|PAIRS||RBI REF RATE (28/06)|
In 2022-23 fiscal, FII’S have sold 89224 Cr of Equities till date and have sold Rs 5593 Cr of debt till date. In 2021-22, FII’S net sold Rs 128897 cr in Equity segment and have net bought Rs 4805 cr of debt. In 2020-21 financial Year, FII’S nett bought Rs 2,74,203 Cr of Equities and have sold Rs 42820 Cr in debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 18 points (0.11%) Y’day. DOW declined 491 points (1.56%). Nikkei climbed 1.54% and Hang Seng climbed 1.74%.
Euro closed at 1.0581, Pound at 1.2277, Yen at 135.41.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1821 and WT1Crude at USD 111.75/Brent at USD 113.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.15% and 3 m libor closed at 2.23%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.44%.
Economic news: Rupee declined further, tracking rise in Crude prices. Spot USD demand rose due to squaring off of positions ahead of month end may have also contributed to Rupee’s fall from 78.28 to 78.80. Crude prices jumped on reports that gulf oil producers are near “max outputs”, meaning no supply side solution is poised to come to the rescue.
Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 21.2% y/y and consumer confidence dipped to 98.7.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US GDP
Daily Support/Resistance table
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
Technicals: Spot closed above 200 day major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 78. 50 day moving average is at 77.41.200 day moving average is at 75.50. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important supports are at 78.28 and important resistance is at 78.90/80.20. Spot closed above its average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 78.91, S1:78.72, S2:78.34, R1:79.29, R2:79.48.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USDINR Exports can be partially hedged at 78.35+ levels. Nearby imports can be hedged at 77.85.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0625/1.0790. Next major support is at 1.0350. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0350. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1498.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.1935 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3730. Important support is at 1.1935. Important resistance is at 1.2660/1.28.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 126.30. Important support is at 131.35. Major resistance is at 136.75.
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